首页|基于优化灰色关联法的矿井涌水量预测

基于优化灰色关联法的矿井涌水量预测

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预测矿井工作面涌水量是预防矿井水害的主要措施之一.利用灰色关联法预测矿井涌水量有着所需样本量少、计算简单、运算时间短、预测精度高,并且对原始数据要求不高,具有较强的适应性等优点.选取李楼煤矿为研究对象,使用简单比拟法和建立优化后的GM(1,1)模型(灰色关联法)来进行工作面涌水量的预测.结果表明:优化后的GM(1,1)模型预测精度达到96.303%,相对简单比拟法准确度更高.通过该模型的预测可以完成涌水量预测的需求,并且选择合适的预测模型能够对工作面涌水量做出更加精准的预测,从而提高煤矿开采的效率和安全程度.
Prediction of mine water inflow based on optimized grey correlation method
Predicting the water inflow of a mining face is one of the main measures to prevent water hazards in mines.Predicting the water inflow of a mining face using the grey correlation method has the advantages of requiring few samples,simple calculations,short computation time,high prediction accuracy,and not being demanding on the original data,and has strong adaptability.Taking the Li Lou coal mine as the research ob-ject,this study uses the simple analogy method and the optimized GM(1,1)model(grey correlation method)to predict the water inflow of the working face.The results show that the prediction accuracy of the opti-mized GM(1,1)model reaches 96.303%,which is more accurate than the simple analogy method.The pre-diction through this model can meet the demand for water inflow forecasting,and choosing the appropriate forecasting model can make more accurate predictions of the water inflow at the working face,thereby im-proving the efficiency and safety level of coal mining.

grey correlation methodsimple analogy methodmine water inflowprediction

曹梦晴、李业、夏志村、丁小平、刘文明、徐东晶、赵瑞平

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山东科技大学地球科学与工程学院 山东青岛 266590

山东里能鲁西矿业有限公司 山东济宁 272071

山东李楼煤业有限公司 山东菏泽 274700

中煤科工西安研究院(集团)有限公司 陕西西安 710077

陕西永明煤矿有限公司 陕西延安 716000

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灰色关联法 简单比拟法 矿井涌水量 预测

2024

矿产与地质
桂林矿产地质研究院

矿产与地质

CSTPCD
影响因子:0.42
ISSN:1001-5663
年,卷(期):2024.38(6)