空军工程大学学报2024,Vol.25Issue(1) :71-75.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.2097-1915.2024.01.011

基于胜率预测的空战关键节点确定方法

A Determination Method for Key Nodes in Aerial Combat Based on Win Rate Prediction

张诚 刘会斌 瞿崇晓 夏少杰 朱燎原 范长军
空军工程大学学报2024,Vol.25Issue(1) :71-75.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.2097-1915.2024.01.011

基于胜率预测的空战关键节点确定方法

A Determination Method for Key Nodes in Aerial Combat Based on Win Rate Prediction

张诚 1刘会斌 1瞿崇晓 1夏少杰 1朱燎原 1范长军1
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作者信息

  • 1. 中国电子科技集团公司第五十二研究所,杭州,311100
  • 折叠

摘要

以提高空战训练评估效率为目标,着眼于确定影响战局走向的关键节点,提出了一种基于胜率预测的空战关键节点确定方法.首先,基于长短期记忆网络设计并训练胜率预测模型,以实时评估空战态势;其次,引入最大类间方差法确定关键节点阈值,并将相邻时刻胜率差绝对值大于阈值的时间点确认为关键节点.实验结果表明,所设计的胜率预测模型预测胜率准确,所采用的关键节点阈值选择方法合理,总体方案具有可行性和泛化性.

Abstract

Taking an improvement on the efficiency of aerial combat training evaluation as a target,and staring at the key nodes of influence on trend of combat outcomes,this paper proposes a method for deter-mining aerial combat key nodes based on win rate prediction.Firstly,the long short-term memory net-works are utilized for designing and training a win rate prediction model for real-time assessment of aerial combat situations.Secondly,the OTSU's method is utilized for determining the threshold for key nodes,and the time steps with absolute win rate difference between adjacent steps of being greater than the threshold are identified as key nodes.The experiments show that the win rates are accurate in prediction by the designed win rate prediction model,the adopted key node threshold selection method is reasonable,and the overall proposed method is feasible and has a good generality.

关键词

空战/胜率预测/关键节点/长短期记忆网络/最大类间方差法

Key words

air combat/winning rate prediction/key nodes/long short-term memory

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出版年

2024
空军工程大学学报
空军工程大学科研部

空军工程大学学报

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:0.55
ISSN:2097-1915
参考文献量6
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