随着全球气候变暖趋势逐渐加剧,气温变化不仅给人类生产生活带来了巨大变化,也对人口迁移产生了深远影响.基于 2009-2021 年中国城市气温和迁移人口面板数据,运用固定效应和系统广义矩估计(guneralized method of moments,GMM)法检验气温变化对人口迁移的影响.结果表明,气温变化与人口迁移间存在显著非线性相关关系,人口迁移行为更易受到上期决策的影响;存在区域异质性,中温带和亚热带地区人口迁移显著受到气温的影响;碳排放对人口迁移的影响显著为负,而低碳与新能源汽车试点政策对人口迁移呈显著的正向影响.本文提供的气温对人口迁移影响证据可为政府采取积极措施应对极端高温频发趋势,以及气温变化给人口迁移带来的潜在挑战提供科学依据.
The Impact of Temperature on Population Migration in China:A Dynamic Effects Analysis Based on 285 Cities
With the gradual intensification of the global warming trend,temperature change not only brings great changes to human production and life,but also has a profound impact on population migration.Based on the panel data of temperature and migrated population in Chinese cities from 2009 to 2021,the effects of temperature change on population migration were examined using the fixed effects and systematic GMM methods.The results show that there is a significant non-linear correlation between temperature change and population migration,and the migration behavior is more likely to be influenced by the decisions made in the previous period.There is regional heterogeneity,and the population migration in mesothermal and subtropical regions is significantly affected by temperature.The impact of carbon emission on population migration is significantly negative,while the pilot policy of low carbon and new energy vehicles have a significant positive impact on population migration.The evidence provided by the article on the impact of temperature on population migration may provide a scientific basis for the government to take active measures to cope with the trend of extreme high temperature and the potential challenges posed by temperature change on population migration.
temperaturepopulation migrationcarbon emissionstemperature zones
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