Carbon Emission Projections in the Aircraft Sector of China's Civil Aviation Industry:A Model Analysis Based on Turnover,Economic Conditions and Policy Impacts
The rapid development of China's aviation industry has raised concerns about its energy consumption and carbon emissions.The air cargo and passenger turnover are predicted through empirical analysis,combined with stepwise regression and large-scale energy analysis and planning(LEAP)models,future carbon emissions is evaluated.Three scenarios are set:pessimistic scenario(no significant technological or policy changes),policy scenario(considering government measures),and technological breakthrough scenario(promoting technological innovation and sustainable aviation fuel(SAF)).Special emphasis is placed on the potential of SAF in emission reduction,emphasizing its commercial and compatibility advantages.The prediction results show that carbon emission reduction is limited in a pessimistic scenario.There may be a reduction in policy scenarios,but it is limited by existing technology.Under the scenario of technological breakthroughs,emissions can be significantly reduced.The importance of technological innovation for the sustainable development of the aviation industry is emphasized,and it is suggested to improve the production efficiency and reduce costs of SAF,evaluate its full life cycle environmental impact,and promote market and international cooperation.
aircraft divisionlarge-scale energy analysis and planning(LEAP)sustainable aviation fuel(SAF)carbon emission results
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
