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高技术产业创新、市场化与经济增长-动态面板GMM估计与面板门槛效应的检验

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基于2009-2016年8年30个省份(因数据缺失,未包括西藏地区和港澳台地区)高技术产业数据,研究高技术产业创新、市场化进程对经济增长的影响关系,运用动态面板广义矩估计(GMM)、面板门槛回归等模型进行实证检验.结果发现,虽然高技术产业创新长期有利于经济增长,但短期内可能不利于经济增长;经济增长减缓可能存在单门槛效应,大于门槛值的区域减缓幅度大于低于门槛值的区域;采用各省份机器人密度作为市场水平的替代变量进行稳健性检验,研究结果也支持上述结论.最后,分析了实践启示、政策建议,并提出了研究不足和未来可能的研究方向.
High Technology Industry Innovation,Marketization and Economic Growth-Dynamic Panel GMM Estimation and Threshold Effect Test
Based on the data of 30 provinces and regions in high-tech industries from 2009 to 2016 to study the impact of high-tech industrial innovation and marketization on economic growth,an empirical test with the dynamic panel GMM estimation and threshold effect test was conducted.The results show that industrial innovation has a negative effect on economic growth in short term,while benefit economicly and socially in long term and overall social walfare.Marketization may have single threshold effect on converge of economic growth may.The weaken effect is larger in the areas higher than threshold compared to areas below to the threshold.The provincial density of robots were applied as the proxy variable to conduct robustness test,and the results also support above conclusions.Finally,relevant suggestions are provided on the practice and policymaking.Future research directions are also discussed.

industrial innovationmarketizationeconomic growthhigh-tech industryGMM modelthreshold effect

刘勰

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上海工程技术大学管理学院,上海 201620

产业创新 市场化 经济增长 高技术产业 GMM模型 面板门槛检验

国家社会科学基金一般项目

17BGJ021

2024

科技和产业
中国技术经济学会

科技和产业

影响因子:0.361
ISSN:1671-1807
年,卷(期):2024.24(16)