Research on the Effect of Population Aging on Medical Expenses and Its Mechanism:Based on the Analysis of Mediating and Regulating Effect
Based on the provincial panel data from 2011 to 2021,the impact of population aging on medical expenditure and its mechanism was analyzed by using the mediating effect and moderating effect.The results show that population aging significantly promoted the increase of medical expenses in China,and the intermediary effect shows that population aging will further aggravate the behavior of induced demand of doctors,and cause the unreasonable increase of medical expenses in China.The moderating effect shows that with the relaxation of income constraints,the impact of population aging on health care costs in China has increased,and this has further stimulated physician induced demand behavior.Inter-regional heterogeneity analysis shows that medical expenses in the eastern region of China are more susceptible to the positive impact of aging,while medical expenses in the western region are more susceptible to induced demand,and economic development has a stronger positive moderating effect on this impact.Therefore,the construction of a health-oriented medical service system should be improved and targeted medical behavior guidance and supervision mechanisms should be established for vulnerable groups such as the elderly.At the same time,precise measures should be taken to address problems in different regions.