Influencing Factors Analysis and Trend Prediction of Carbon Emissions in the Northeast Three Provinces of China:Based on STIRPAT Model and Scenario Analysis
The Northeast Three Provinces of China are the key region for reducing carbon emissions under the"dual carbon"goal.The STIRPAT(stochastic impacts by regression on population,affluence,and technology)model was used to analyze the influencing factors of carbon emissions of each province from 2000 to 2021,and the scenario analysis method was used to predict the carbon emission trends of each province until 2040.The model analysis results showed that each province only has the influencing factors that lead to an increase in carbon emissions.Total energy consumption,carbon emission intensity,and per capita GDP are common influencing factors for each province.The influencing factors of each province are different combinations.There are differences in the promoting effects of influencing factors among different provinces.The prediction results showed that according to the carbon emissions during the same period,the three provinces are ranked from high to low as Liaoning Province,Heilongjiang Province,and Jilin Province.The carbon emission curves of each province all exhibit an inverted U-shape,where a distinct peak can be observed.The carbon peak time in Heilongjiang Province and Jilin Province are both 2012,while the carbon peak time in Liaoning Province is 2025.In response to the results of analysis and prediction,recommendations were proposed in three aspects:energy,socio-economics,and regional coordination.
STIRPAT(stochastic impacts by regression on population,affluence,and technology)modelcarbon emissioncarbon peakingscenario analysistrend prediction
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