首页|基于多源数据福厦城市高温热浪风险统计评估与影响因素研究

基于多源数据福厦城市高温热浪风险统计评估与影响因素研究

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以福建省福州市、厦门市为研究区域,基于2013-2022年两市相关数据,以高温热浪天气现象为切入点,从高温热浪的风险暴露性、风险敏感性、风险适应性3个维度进行脆弱性统计评估,基于地理加权回归和地理探测器模型分析高温热浪的影响因素.研究结果表明:福厦两市的地理环境条件、经济社会发展水平差异导致两市高温热浪程度不同,厦门市高温热浪脆弱性更明显;常住人口的数量、经济发展水平、建成区绿地覆盖率对高温热浪影响最大,其中GDP、建成区绿地覆盖率为负向影响,常住人口数为正向影响,同时资金、技术设施也在一定程度上影响福厦两市高温热浪的发生.为此,在全球气候变暖、气象灾害频发的背景下,要优化水路分布,增加城市绿化、提升植被覆盖率,完善基础设施建设,在保证经济发展的同时,实现经济效益和生态效益相统一.
Research on the Statistical Assessment and Influencing Factors of Heat Wave Risk in Fuxia City Based on Multi-source Data
Utilizing data from Fuzhou and Xiamen in Fujian Province from 2013 to 2022,extreme heat waves were employed as the focal point to conduct a comprehensive statistical assessment of vulnerability across three dimensions such as risk exposure,sensitivity and adaptability.Furthermore,the influencing factors of extreme heat waves were examined using geographically weighted regression and geographic detector models.The findings reveal that disparities in geographical environmental conditions and socio-economic development levels between Fuzhou and Xiamen have resulted in varying degrees of extreme heat waves in both cities,with Xiamen demonstrating heightened vulnerability across multiple indicators.The resident population size,level of economic development and green space coverage within urban areas exert significant influence on extreme heat waves.Specifically,GDP and green space coverage yield negative impacts while the resident population yields positive effects.Additionally,financial resources and technological infrastructure also moderately impact the occurrence of extreme heat waves in both cities.Therefore,amidst global climate change and frequent meteorological disasters,optimizing population distribution alongside waterways is imperative along with augmenting urban greening initiatives to enhance vegetation coverage rates while concurrently improving infrastructure construction to ensure economic development aligns harmoniously with ecological benefits.

heat wavevulnerability measurementgeographical weighted regressiongeographic detector

苏妍、常康薇、陈奕玲、旷开金、李衡荣

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福建江夏学院金融学院,福州 350108

福建江夏学院海峡财经学院,福州 350108

高温热浪 脆弱性测度 地理加权回归 地理探测器

2025

科技和产业
中国技术经济学会

科技和产业

影响因子:0.361
ISSN:1671-1807
年,卷(期):2025.25(4)