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电力行业的碳脱钩路径研究——基于20家电力企业的面板数据

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电力行业低碳转型是减少全球二氧化碳排放的关键,控制电力行业的碳排放是推动我国碳排放尽早达峰的重要举措。本文以电力行业的上游发电端为主,以中游传输端以及下游需求端为辅,研究电力行业中的脱碳问题。首先,结合电力行业各个环节碳排放的主要途径构建理论模型。其次,选定衡量碳排放的能源消耗量、发电量和营业收入为初步指标,获取我国典型的20 家电力企业2015-2022 年的面板数据,应用Tapio脱钩模型衡量碳排放量与电力行业经济增长之间的相关关系,运用LMDI模型探讨碳排放量的影响机理,从供应端到传输端再到需求端,对电力行业的碳排放情况进行分析,结果显示:近三年电力行业的经济增长与碳排放量一直处于增长负脱钩状态;20 家企业中除了华能国际处于衰退脱钩状态,其余19 家企业的碳排放量总趋势均在不断增加,大多企业处于增长负脱钩状态或者增长连接状态,其中国电电力处于最不理想状态;企业进行绿色转型以及能源结构优化可以有效实现碳减排以及促进企业持续健康发展;全国性企业应当先有序降低碳排放量的增长速率,再逐步进行绿色转型;地区性企业应当形成经济增长—发展可再生能源两者之间的良性循环,在提高企业经济实力的同时逐步进行绿色转型;能源结构和发电效益是电力行业的碳排放增长的主要脱钩因素,能源强度和发电规模的增长能有效降低电力行业的碳排放。最后,从上游供应端、中游传输端和下游需求端提出具体的脱碳路径,以期助力电力行业实现碳排放脱钩。
Study on the path of carbon decoupling in power industry:Based on panel data from 20 power companies
With the increasingly serious problem of industrial carbon emissions,the total carbon emissions of the power industry account for the first in China's total emissions,and controlling carbon emissions of power industry is an important measure to promote the peak of carbon emissions in China as soon as possible.Low-carbon transforma-tion of power industry is the key to reduce global carbon dioxide emissions.This paper focuses on the upstream power generation end of the power industry,supplemented by the midstream transmission end and the downstream demand end,to study the problem of decarbonization in the power industry.Firstly,the decision-making model is constructed by combining the main ways of carbon emission in all links of the power industry.Secondly,energy consumption,power generation and operating income are selected as preliminary indicators to measure carbon emis-sions,and the panel data of 20 typical power companies in China from 2015 to 2022 are obtained.Tapio decou-pling model is used to measure the correlation between carbon emissions and the experienced growth of the power industry,and LMDI model is used to explore the influence mechanism of carbon emissions.Analyze the carbon e-missions of the power industry from the supply side to the transmission side and then to the demand side.The re-sults show that:The economic growth and carbon emissions of the power industry have been negatively decoupled in recent three years.;Among the 20 enterprises,except Huaneng International,the total trend of carbon emissions of the other 19 enterprises is increasing,and most enterprises are in the state of negative decoupling or growth connec-tion,among which Guodian Power is the most unsatisfactory state;The carbon emission reduction measures of Hua-dian International,which maintains a good decoupling state,are studied,and it is found that green transformation and energy structure optimization of enterprises can effectively achieve carbon emission reduction and promote sus-tainable and healthy development of enterprises;National enterprises should first reduce the growth rate of carbon e-missions in an orderly manner,and then gradually carry out green transformation.Regional enterprises should form a virtuous circle between economic growth and the development of renewable energy,and gradually carry out green transformation while improving the economic strength of enterprises;Energy structure and power generation benefit are the main decoupling factors of carbon emission growth in power industry,and the growth of energy intensity and power generation scale can effectively reduce carbon emission in power industry.Finally,specific decarbonization paths are proposed from the upstream supply end,the midstream transmission end and the downstream demand end,with a view to helping the whole chain carbon emission decoupling of the power industry.For the upstream power generation end,carbon emissions are mainly reduced by improving the energy structure and improving energy efficiency.In particular,power generation enterprises need to gradually carry out green transformation to form a power generation form and energy structure based on renewable energy and coordinated by various energy sources as a whole;For the midstream transmission end,it is necessary to upgrade the transmission technology and improve the electrical components to optimize the power network and improve the efficiency of power transmission;For the downstream demand end,it is necessary to encourage the use of clean energy by users,while focusing on the opti-mization of the green power trading market and improving energy efficiency.

electric-power industryTapio decoupling modelLMDI model

于成学、吴婉莹、张镇东

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广东财经大学 国际商学院,广东 广州 510320

电力行业 Tapio脱钩模型 LMDI模型

广东省哲学社会科学规划基金项目一般项目

GD20CGL39

2024

科技与管理
哈尔滨理工大学

科技与管理

CHSSCD
影响因子:0.494
ISSN:1008-7133
年,卷(期):2024.26(1)
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