首页|我国战略科学家研究的热点透视与未来路向:基于LDA-SARIMA模型的研究

我国战略科学家研究的热点透视与未来路向:基于LDA-SARIMA模型的研究

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战略科学家是科技人才中的帅才,是支撑我国高水平科技自立自强的重要力量。探索战略科学家研究领域主题存在的取向和呈现的趋向,可为相关科技政策研究和制定工作提供借鉴。本文采用LDA主题建模和SARIMA预测分析方法对战略科学家这一重要研究领域进行主题挖掘与实证分析,抽取与战略科学家相关的6 个核心主题,对该领域的研究现状与发展动态进行探讨。研究表明:战略科学家的研究具有显著的周期性特征;研究集中在建设国家战略人才力量层面,强调战略科学家对于承担国家战略任务,推动战略人才体系建设的作用;通过模型的定量预测功能得出培育和使用战略科学家、借助新媒体技术开展科学普及和教育工作是未来研究的趋向。建议在探讨如何完善战略科学家的培养体系时,紧跟时代发展的步伐,培养符合新时代需求的战略科学家。
Hotspot perspectives and future directions in the research field of strategic scientists based on LDA-SARIMA model
In the contemporary epoch,where technological prowess is increasingly intertwined with national compet-itiveness,strategic scientists emerge as pivotal figures in the realm of science and technology.These'scientific and technological talents with leadership',a term that denotes their extraordinary intellectual capital and innovative ca-pabilities,constitute a cornerstone in China's quest for high-caliber technological autonomy and progressive en-hancement.To further strengthen this foundation,there is a pressing need to systematically investigate the thematic foci and evolutionary trends characterizing research on strategic scientists,thereby informing and enriching the de-sign and implementation of scientific and technological policies.This study embarks on a rigorous analytical journey by harnessing the combined power of Latent Dirichlet Allocation(LDA)topic modeling and Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average(SARIMA)prediction analysis.LDA,celebrated for its efficacy in unearthing latent thematic structures from vast corpora,is synergistically paired with SARIMA,a statistical forecasting tool adept at i-dentifying and predicting cyclical patterns in time-series data.This multidimensional approach enables a compre-hensive exploration and empirical analysis within the dynamic landscape of strategic scientist research.The applica-tion of these methodologies uncovers six cardinal themes that encapsulate the essence of inquiries related to strategic scientists.These themes span across realms such as the formation of a national strategic talent cadre,emphasizing not merely the execution of strategic national assignments by these scientists but also their pivotal role in architecting a robust strategic talent infrastructure.This underscores the recognition of strategic scientists as linchpins in the strategic planning and execution of national objectives,catalyzing advancements in technology and fostering an eco-system conducive to sustained innovation.A pivotal and helpful finding from the SARIMA analysis reveals a dis-cernible cyclical pattern in the research trends surrounding strategic scientists,indicating fluctuations in scholarly focus and resource allocation over time.This insight accentuates the necessity for anticipatory strategies that can maintain a steady momentum in research and development efforts,averting potential downturns during periods of waning interest.Prospective avenues of research,as illuminated by our analysis,point towards the innovative appli-cation of predictive models to identify,nurture,and optimally deploy strategic scientists.This forward-thinking ap-proach seeks to leverage the quantitative forecasting capabilities of such models to anticipate talent requirements,thereby enabling a proactive and targeted approach to talent cultivation.Furthermore,the integration of new media technologies in disseminating scientific knowledge and fostering public education is posited as a transformative trend,capable of amplifying the societal impact of scientific breakthroughs and nurturing a culture of scientific liter-acy and innovation.In the quest for refining training systems tailored for strategic scientists,the paper concludes by advocating for a contemporaneous approach that aligns with the exigencies of the new era.This entails not only a-dapting educational curricula to reflect the latest advancements and challenges in the global scientific landscape but also fostering an environment that encourages interdisciplinary collaboration,promotes international engagement,and nurtures a spirit of entrepreneurship among strategic scientists.By doing so,China can ensure a steady pipeline of versatile and forward-thinking experts capable of steering the nation's scientific and technological agenda towards unprecedented heights.

strategic scientistsempirical analysistheme miningLDAtheme model

黄涛、邹浙灿

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武汉科技大学 法学与经济学院,湖北 武汉 430065

战略科学家 实证分析 主题挖掘 LDA 主题模型

教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目湖北省高校哲学社会科学研究重大项目湖北省教育厅人文社科重点项目中国高等教育研究会重点项目

23YJAZH02723ZD15322D02422YZ0204

2024

科技与管理
哈尔滨理工大学

科技与管理

CHSSCD
影响因子:0.494
ISSN:1008-7133
年,卷(期):2024.26(3)