甘肃农业碳排放脱钩分析及趋势预测
Decoupling Analysis and Trend Prediction of Agricultural Carbon Emissions in Gansu Province
乔宇佳 1吕剑平1
作者信息
- 1. 甘肃农业大学财经学院, 兰州 730070
- 折叠
摘要
重点研究甘肃农业碳排放时序结构特征及未来碳排放趋势,以期为甘肃农业实现碳达峰碳中和提供参考.采用排放因子法对甘肃2005-2021 年的农业碳排放量进行测算,采用Tapio脱钩模型研究甘肃农业碳排放与农业经济增长的脱钩关系,基于扩展STIRPAT模型结合岭回归分析方法预测甘肃2022-2030 年农业碳排放量.结果表明,甘肃农业碳排放总量呈上升趋势,但增速下降,农业碳排放强度先增加后降低;畜牧业对农业碳排放的贡献最大,其次是翻耕、化肥、农膜;甘肃农业碳排放脱钩弹性类型主要为弱脱钩、弱负脱钩、强脱钩3 种状态,其中弱脱钩为主要类型;2022-2030 年甘肃农业碳排放将持续降低,未来应继续巩固种植业固碳减排、畜牧业减排降碳、提升各农业主体的低碳意识等措施.
Abstract
This paper focuses on the temporal structure characteristics and future carbon emission trends of agricultural carbon emis-sions in Gansu Province,in order to provide reference for agricultural carbon peaking and carbon neutrality in Gansu Province.The e-mission factor method was used to measure the agricultural carbon emissions in Gansu Province from 2005 to 2021,the Tapio decou-pling analysis model was used to study the decoupling relationship between agricultural carbon emissions and agricultural economic growth in Gansu Province,and the agricultural carbon emissions in Gansu Province from 2022 to 2030 were predicted based on the ex-tended STAPPAT model combined with ridge regression analysis method.The total amount of agricultural carbon emissions in Gansu Province showed an upward trend,but the growth rate decreased,and the agricultural carbon emission intensity first increased and then decreased.Animal husbandry contributes the most to carbon emissions,followed by tilling,fertilizer and agricultural film;the types of agricultural carbon emission decoupling elasticity in Gansu Province are mainly weak decoupling,weak negative decoupling and strong decoupling,of which weak decoupling is the main type.From 2022 to 2030,agricultural carbon emissions in Gansu Province will con-tinue to decrease.In the future,measures such as carbon sequestration and emission reduction in planting,carbon reduction and emis-sion reduction in animal husbandry,and improving low-carbon awareness of agricultural entities should be consolidated.
关键词
农业碳排放/时序特征/Tapio脱钩模型/STIRPAT模型Key words
carbon emissions from agriculture/timing characteristics/Tapio decoupling model/STIRPAT model引用本文复制引用
基金项目
甘肃省软科学研究计划(20CX9ZA102)
甘肃农业大学青年研究生指导教师扶持基金(GAU-QNDS-201707)
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据