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我国制造业产业外迁对出口贸易的影响机制研究

Study on the Mechanism of Export Trade Affected by the External Migration of Manufacturing Industry in China

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基于水平溢出和产业关联的视角,利用2007-2023 年中国制造业上市公司的微观数据对产业外迁企业进行识别,继而分析产业外迁对中国制造业出口贸易的影响.研究发现,产业外迁对本行业内制造业出口的影响显著为负,前向溢出效应和后向溢出效应则对制造业出口起到显著促进作用.机制分析发现,产业外迁通过削弱竞争效应替代本行业出口;前向溢出效应和后向溢出效应则通过生产率效应和自主创新效应提高中间品的规模和质量,从而促进行业出口.进一步针对行业进行异质性检验,结果显示,在技术密集型行业中水平溢出以及前向溢出效应存在明显差异.
From the perspectives of horizontal spillover and industrial linkage,this paper uses micro-data of China's manufacturing lis-ted companies from 2007 to 2023 to identify enterprises that have external migration,and then analyzes the impact of external migration on China's manufacturing export trade.The study finds that:the effect of external migration of manufacturing industry on the export in the same industry is negative,while forward spillover effects and backward spillover effects significantly promote manufacturing exports.Mechanism analysis shows that external migration of manufacturing industry affects the industry's exports by weakening the competition effect;forward spillover effects and backward spillover effects increase the scale and quality of intermediate products through productivi-ty effects and independent innovation effects,thereby promoting industry exports.Further heterogeneity test on the industry shows that there are significant differences in horizontal spillover effects and forward spillover effects in technology-intensive industries.

external migration of manufacturing industryOFDIindustrial linkagesexport trade

刘情、张海波

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宁波大学商学院,浙江 宁波 315040

制造业产业外迁 对外直接投资 产业关联 出口贸易

2024

科技与经济
南京市科技信息研究所

科技与经济

影响因子:0.528
ISSN:1003-7691
年,卷(期):2024.37(6)