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冷涡背景下江苏强对流天气特征分析

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冷涡背景下的强对流天气常错报和漏报.为了提高此类强对流天气的预报准确率,利用2013-2022年常规地面和高空观测资料以及地面区域自动站资料,运用统计分析方法,对江苏地区116次冷涡强对流的天气特征进行分析.结果表明:冷涡强对流类型主要有短时强降水、雷暴大风和混合型,其中,混合型发生频率最高(90%),最大小时雨强主要集中在30~49.9 mm/h和50~79.9 mm/h,雷暴大风风力大多为8~9级(48%),其次是10级以上(36%);对流触发时间呈双峰型分布,主要分布在夜间和午后,最高峰为00-02时;不同类型冷涡下的强对流天气既有共性特征,也存在一定的差异性;短时强降水和雷暴大风比较容易发生在沿淮、淮北地区和沿江、苏南地区这两大区域,冰雹落区则相对比较分散.
Analysis of Characteristics of Severe Convective Weather in Jiangsu Province Under the Background of Cold Vortex
Severe convective weather under the background of cold vortex is often misreported and underreported.In order to improve the accuracy of forecasting such severe convective weather,Statistical Analysis method is used to analyze the weather characteristics of 116 cold vortex strong convection events in Jiangsu region using conven-tional ground and upper air observation data from 2013 to 2022,as well as ground region automatic station data.The results show that the main types of cold vortex strong convection are short-term heavy precipitation,thunder-storm gale,and mixed types.Among them,the mixed type has the highest frequency of occurrence(90%),and the maximum hourly rainfall intensity is mainly concentrated in 30~49.9 mm/h and 50~79.9 mm/h,with thunderstorm gale mostly ranging from level 8~9(48%),followed by level 10 or above(36%);The triggering time of convection shows a bimodal distribution,mainly distributed at night and afternoon,with the highest peak occurring from 00 to 02 o'clock;Strong convective weather under different types of cold vortex has both common characteristics and cer-tain differences;Short-term heavy precipitation and thunderstorm gales are more likely to occur in Huai River and north of Huai River regions,as well as the Yangtze River and southern Jiangsu regions,while hail areas are rela-tively scattered.

Cold vortexStrong convectionWeather characteristicsShort-term heavy precipitationThunder-storms gale

陆伟、徐钦晨

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泰州市气象局 江苏泰州 225300

江苏省气象灾害防御技术中心 江苏南京 210019

冷涡 强对流 天气特征 短时强降水 雷暴大风

2024

科技资讯
北京国际科技服务中心 北京合作创新国际科技服务中心

科技资讯

影响因子:0.51
ISSN:1672-3791
年,卷(期):2024.22(16)