Bilateral Trade's Border Effect on China and Pakistan Economic Corridor(CPEC)
In order to estimate the impact of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor(CPEC)on the trade border effect between Xinjiang and Pakistan,this paper constructs two trade partial equilibrium models(GSIM)for 2012-2017 and 2018-2021,using the agricultural trade data of the World Bank and Xinjiang Statistical Yearbook.The calculation results show that:the border effect on trade between Xinjiang and Pakistan decreased from 25 percent in 2012-2017 to 20 percent in 2018-2021,meaning that the corridor lowered trade barriers between Xinjiang and Pakistan.From 2012 to 2021,the decline of export border effect was more than that of import border effect,indicating that the growth of Xinjiang's export trade was higher than that of import trade in the past 10 years,indicating that the potential of export trade between Xinjiang and Pakistan was gradually released,and Xinjiang provided more trade facilitation.The decline in the border effect of bilateral trade between Xinjiang and Pakistan is mainly attributed to the deepening of trade policies,the enhancement of economic vitality and the enhancement of total factor productivity.The cost of trade between Xinjiang and Pakistan in 2018-2021 decreased by 10.62%compared to 2012-2017.The corridor has deepened the mutual trade dependence between Pakistan and Xinjiang,improving the level of bilateral trade,weakened trade barriers,and reduced bilateral trade costs and preferences for local products.
border effecttrade costsunilateral effectelasticity of substitutionimport dependence
万方数据
维普
