Based on IGOWLA Operator and Theil Unequal Coefficients Research on Forecasting of Grain Yield Combination in Anhui Province
Accurate prediction of grain output is of great significance for ensuring national food security,optimizing allocation of agricultural resources,guiding agricultural production and policy making.Based on three single forecasting models,namely differential autoregressive moving average(ARIMA),long and short term network(LSTM)and grey GM(1,1),a combined forecasting model was established,and the grain production data of Anhui Province from 1949 to 2023 were used to re-forecast the grain production data of Anhui Province from 2014 to 2023.By inducing the generalized ordered weighted logarithmic average operator(IGOWLA),the combined prediction is compared with the three single prediction results in order to minimize Theil inequality coefficients to solve the variable weight coefficients.The results show that the combined prediction model is better than the single prediction model in terms of accuracy and stability.Finally,the combined forecasting model is used to forecast the grain production in Anhui Province from 2024 to 2026,in order to provide scientific basis for local government and agricultural departments to make food production decisions.
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