Macroeconomic Cycle Stage Division Based on Lasso and K-means Clustering
The division of economic cycles is of great significance for grasping the essence of the laws of market economy.In this field,domestic and foreign research mainly focuses on qualitative research based on economic theory.However,there are many potential factors affecting the division of economic cycles,and the influencing mechanism is complex,so there are few quantitative studies,especially the interdisciplinary research with machine learning and other theories and methods needs to be strengthened.Based on the macroeconomic data of the past 20 years,this paper selects the high-dimensional macroeconomic indicators to add the penalty Lasso to the Key indicators,and then selects the purchasing managers'index and household consumption index as the Key indicators,and then performs K-means clustering to obtain the division of China's economic cycle from 2001 to 2021.
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