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我国未来产业风险监测预警体系的构建逻辑、框架与政策

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未来产业发展伴随着不确定性和复杂性,风险贯穿于整个产业的成长史,构建未来产业风险监测预警体系是防范未来产业风险的重要途径之一。通过分析未来产业发展的动力因素阐释监测预警体系构建的理论逻辑,分析未来产业发展的现状问题阐释体系构建的实践逻辑。依据上述理论与实践逻辑,剖析未来产业发展过程中风险产生的主要来源,提出未来产业风险来源的三维式分析框架。基于情报理论,从风险监测、风险辨识、风险诊断、风险评价、风险预报等方面构建未来产业风险监测预警体系框架。最后结合我国未来产业发展实际情况,提出加强风险监测预警工作的政策建议。利用情报理论构建的未来产业风险监测预警体系可以对产业发展进行全面、有效的风险评估,促进未来产业健康有序发展,为加强中国未来产业风险监测预警工作提供参考借鉴。
Construction Logic,Framework and Policy of China's Industries of the Future Risk Monitoring and Warning System
The industries of the future has uncertainty and complexity.The construction of industries of the future risk monitoring and early warning system is one of the important ways to prevent risks.Through analyzing the driving factors of industries of the future development,the theoretical logic of constructing a monitoring and early warning system is ex-plained.Through analyzing the impact of industries of the future development on economic operation,the practical logic of constructing the system is explained.Analyze the main sources of industries of the future risks.Propose a three-dimensional analysis framework for the sources of industries of the future risks.The framework of industries of the future risk monitoring and early warning system is constructed from the aspects of risk monitoring,risk identification,risk diagnosis,risk evaluation and risk forecast based on information theory.Finally,according to the actual situation of China's industries of the future development,puts forward some policy suggestions for strengthening risk monitoring and early warning.The industries of the future risk monitoring and early warning system constructed by information theory can carry out comprehensive and effective risk assessment for industrial development,and promote the healthy and orderly development of industries of the future.The research can provide reference for China's industries of the future risk monitoring and early warning work.

Industries of the futureRisk identificationMonitoring and early warningIndustrial policy

西桂权、靳晓宏、张婷

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北京市科学技术研究院 科技情报研究所,北京 100044

未来产业 风险识别 监测预警 产业政策

国家社会科学基金项目

23BTQ075

2024

科学管理研究
内蒙古自治区软科学研究会

科学管理研究

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:1.184
ISSN:1004-115X
年,卷(期):2024.42(5)