Study on the Impact of Natural Disasters on Agricultural Production and Macroecono-my in China
To analyze the transmission mechanisms through which natural disaster events affect agricultural production and subsequently impact the macroeconomy,this paper utilizes temperature and precipitation data from the China Surface Climate Data Daily Value Dataset,provincial panel data from 2000-2020,and input-output table data.Using descriptive statistics,fixed effects models,and CGE models,the study maps the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of climate change and drought-flood disasters in China.It further examines the impact of natural disasters on agricultural production and simulates the effects of changes in agricultural output on various sectors of the Chinese macroeconomy.The results indicate that abnormal precipitation events are frequent in southern,eastern,and central China,while the northwestern region experiences less but more stable annual precipitation,with frequent and prolonged droughts.A 1%increase in the disaster-affected area in agriculture leads to a 0.02%decrease in the gross output value of agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry,and fisheries,and a 0.027%decrease in total grain output.Increased agricultural investment over the past decade has reduced the average annual disaster-affected area,preventing a 5%loss in agricultural production and positively impacting all macroeconomic sectors.
万方数据
维普
