Study on the Impact of Changes in Local Environmental Pollution under the Back-ground of Trade Policy Uncertainty:An Empirical Analysis Based on 281 Prefec-ture-level Cities in China
Based on the panel data of 281 prefecture-level cities in China from 2003 to 2022,this article uses a fixed effects model to systematically examine the impact of changes in environmental pollution in prefecture-level cities under the background of China's trade policy uncertainty.The study finds that the increase in trade policy uncertainty significantly reduces environmental pollution,and this conclusion remains true after a series of robustness tests.Mechanism analysis shows that trade policy uncertainty may affect environmental pollution in three ways:inhibiting social investment,forcing enterprises to carry out technological innovation,and promoting industrial transformation and upgrading.Further research found that the environmental governance effects of rising trade policy uncertainty are heterogeneous in terms of city size,urban economic development level,and intensity of trade policy uncertainty.This article helps to expand the research horizons in the two fields of trade policy uncertainty and environmental governance,and in practice provides empirical support for environmental pollution governance in various regions under conditions of trade policy uncertainty.
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