首页|Climatic suitability and spatial distribution for summer maize cultivation in China at 1.5 and 2.0 ℃ global warming

Climatic suitability and spatial distribution for summer maize cultivation in China at 1.5 and 2.0 ℃ global warming

扫码查看
原文链接
  • NETL
  • NSTL
  • 万方数据
Evaluating climatic suitability of crop cultivation lays a foundation for agriculture coping with climate change scientifically.Herein,we analyse changes in the climatically suitable distribution of summer maize cultivation in China at 1.5 ℃ (GW1.5) and 2.0 ℃ (GW2.0) global warming in the future according to the temperature control targets set by the Paris Agreement.Compared with the reference period (1971-2000),the summer maize cultivation climatically suitable region (CSR) in China mainly shifts eastwards,and its acreage significantly decreases at both GW1.5 and GW2.0.Despite no dramatic changes in the CSR spatial pattern,there are considerable decreases in the acreages of optimum and suitable regions (the core of the main producing region),indicating that half-a-degree more global warming is unfavourable for summer maize production in China's main producing region.When the global warming threshold increases from GW1.5 to GW2.0,the centres-of-gravity of optimum areas shift northeastward under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5,the centres-of-gravity of both suitable and less suitable areas shift northwestward,though the northward trend is more prominent for the less suitable areas,and the centre-of-gravity of unsuitable areas shifts southeastward.Generally,half-a-degree more global warming drives the cultivable areas of summer maize to shift northward in China,while the west region shows a certain potential for expansion of summer maize cultivation.

Summer maizeCultivation distributionClimatic suitability1.5 ℃ global warming2.0 ℃ global warming

Qijin He、Guangsheng Zhou、Xiaomin Lü、Mengzi Zhou

展开 >

College o f Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China

Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China

This work was jointly supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of ChinaNational Natural Science Foundation of ChinaNational Natural Science Foundation of Chinaand the China Special Fund for Meteorological Research in the Public Interest (Major projects)Maps in Figs.1-3 of this article were reviewed by Ministry of Natural Resources of the People's Republic of China

2016YFD03001064150104741330531GYHY201506001-3GS20191173

2019

科学通报(英文版)
中国科学院

科学通报(英文版)

SCIEI
ISSN：1001-6538
年,卷(期)：2019.64(10)
  • 3
  • 10