首页|Exploring changes of precipitation extremes under climate change through global variable-resolution modeling

Exploring changes of precipitation extremes under climate change through global variable-resolution modeling

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Understanding the responses of precipitation extremes to global climate change remains limited owing to their poor representations in models and complicated interactions with multi-scale systems.Here we take the record-breaking precipitation over China in 2021 as an example,and study its changes under three different climate scenarios through a developed pseudo-global-warming(PGW)experimental framework with 60-3 km variable-resolution global ensemble modeling.Compared to the present cli-mate,the precipitation extreme under a warmer(cooler)climate increased(decreased)in intensity,cov-erage,and total amount at a range of 24.3％-37.8％(18.7％-56.1％).With the help of the proposed PGW experimental framework,we further reveal the impacts of the multi-scale system interactions in climate change on the precipitation extreme.Under the warmer climate,large-scale water vapor transport con-verged from double typhoons and the subtropical high marched into central China,enhancing the con-vective energy and instability on the leading edge of the transport belt.As a result,the mesoscale convective system(MCS)that directly contributed to the precipitation extreme became stronger than that in the present climate.On the contrary,the cooler climate displayed opposite changing characteris-tics relative to the warmer climate,ranging from the large-scale systems to local environments and to the MCS.In summary,our study provides a promising approach to scientifically assess the response of pre-cipitation extremes to climate change,making it feasible to perform ensemble simulations while inves-tigating the multi-scale system interactions over the globe.

Precipitation extremeClimate changePseudo-global-warming experimentVariable-resolution modelingMulti-scale system interaction

Wei Sun、Jian Li、Rucong Yu、Nina Li、Yi Zhang

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State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather,Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081,China

Institute of Tibetan Plateau Meteorology,China Meteorological Administration,Chengdu 610072,China

Department of Atmospheric Science,Yunnan University,Kunming 650091,China

National Meteorological Center,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081,China

2035 Future Laboratory,PIESAT Information Technology Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100105,China

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National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaBeijing Nova ProgramNational Key Research and Development Program of ChinaNational Natural Science Foundation of ChinaScience & Technology Development Fund of Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences(CAMS)

42225505Z2111000021211002021YFC3000805U21422042022KJ007

2024

10.1016/j.scib.2023.11.013

科学通报(英文版)
中国科学院

科学通报(英文版)

CSTPCD
ISSN：1001-6538
年,卷(期)：2024.69(2)
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