Large potential of strengthening the land carbon sink in China through anthropogenic interventions

Xu Yue ¹Hao Zhou ²Yang Cao ³Hong Liao ¹Xiaofei Lu ¹Zhen Yu ⁴Wenping Yuan ⁵Zhu Liu ⁶Yadong Lei ⁷Stephen Sitch ⁸Jürgen Knauer ⁹Huijun Wang¹⁰

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作者信息

1. Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment Monitoring and Pollution Control,Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment Technology,School of Environmental Science and Engineering,Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology(NUIST),Nanjing 210044,China
2. College of Meteorology and Oceanography,National University of Defense Technology,Changsha 410073,China
3. Jiangsu Nanjing Environmental Monitoring Center,Nanjing 210013,China
4. Key Laboratory of Agrometeorology of Jiangsu Province,Institute of Ecology,School of Applied Meteorology,NUIST,Nanjing 210044,China
5. Institute of Carbon Neutrality,Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science,College of Urban and Environmental Sciences,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China
6. Department of Earth System Science,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China
7. State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather and Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Chemistry of CMA,Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081,China
8. College of Life and Environmental Sciences,University of Exeter,Exeter EX4 4RJ,UK
9. Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment,Western Sydney University,Penrith 2751,Australia
10. Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster,Ministry of Education,Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change,Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters,NUIST,Nanjing 210044,China
折叠

Abstract

The terrestrial ecosystem in China mitigates 21％-45％of the national contemporary fossil fuel CO2 emis-sions every year.Maintaining and strengthening the land carbon sink is essential for reaching China's tar-get of carbon neutrality.However,this sink is subject to large uncertainties due to the joint impacts of climate change,air pollution,and human activities.Here,we explore the potential of strengthening land carbon sink in China through anthropogenic interventions,including forestation,ozone reduction,and lit-ter removal,taking advantage of a well-validated dynamic vegetation model and meteorological forcings from 16 climate models.Without anthropogenic interventions,considering Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSP)scenarios,the land sink is projected to be 0.26-0.56 Pg C a-1 at 2060,to which climate change contributes 0.06-0.13 Pg C a-1 and CO2 fertilization contributes 0.08-0.44 Pg C a-1 with the stron-ger effects for higher emission scenarios.With anthropogenic interventions,under a close-to-neutral emission scenario(SSP1-2.6),the land sink becomes 0.47-0.57 Pg C a-1 at 2060,including the contribu-tions of 0.12 Pg C a-1 by conservative forestation,0.07 Pg C a-1 by ozone pollution control,and 0.06-0.16 Pg C a-1 by 20％litter removal over planted forest.This sink can mitigate 90％-110％of the residue anthropogenic carbon emissions in 2060,providing a solid foundation for the carbon neutrality in China.

Key words

Carbon sink/Forestation/Ozone/Litter removal

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基金项目

National Natural Science Foundation of China(42293323)

National Natural Science Foundation of China(42275128)

Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province(BK20220031)

出版年

2024

科学通报(英文版)

中国科学院

科学通报(英文版)

CSTPCD

ISSN：1001-6538

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