High-resolution reconstruction of April-September precipitation and major extreme droughts in China over the past～530 years

Yongxiang Zhang ¹Hongli Wang ²Xuemei Shao ³Hongbin Liu ¹Haifeng Zhu ⁴Lily Wang ⁵Eryuan Liang ⁴Zhixin Hao ³Xiuqi Fang ⁶Qibin Zhang ⁷Jinjian Li ⁸Xinghe Shi ⁹Yujiang Yuan ¹⁰Feng Chen ¹¹Tongwen Zhang ¹⁰Ruibo Zhang ¹⁰Huaming Shang ¹⁰Jianfeng Peng¹²

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作者信息

1. National Climate Centre,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081,China
2. Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China;Beijing New Epoch School,the Administrative Bureau of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100086,China
3. Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China
4. Key Laboratory of Alpine Ecology,Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China;CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences,Beijing 100101,China
5. Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China
6. Faculty of Geographical Science,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China
7. State Key Laboratory of Vegetation and Environmental Change,Institute of Botany,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100093,China
8. School of Atmospheric Sciences,Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province,Chengdu University of Information Technology,Chengdu 610225,China
9. Qinghai Climate Centre,Xining 810001 China
10. Key Laboratory of Tree-Ring Physical and Chemical Research of China Meteorological Administration,Key Laboratory of Tree-Ring Ecology of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,Institute of Desert Meteorology,China Meteorological Administration,Urumqi 830002,China
11. Key Laboratory of Tree-Ring Physical and Chemical Research of China Meteorological Administration,Key Laboratory of Tree-Ring Ecology of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,Institute of Desert Meteorology,China Meteorological Administration,Urumqi 830002,China;Yunnan Key Laboratory of International Rivers and Transboundary Eco-Security,Institute of International Rivers and Eco-Security,Yunnan University,Kunming 650000,China
12. College of Geography and Environmental Science,Henan University,Kaifeng 475004,China
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Abstract

Extreme drought events have increased,causing serious losses and damage to the social economy under current warming conditions.However,short-term meteorological data limit our understanding and pro-jection of these extremes.With the accumulation of proxy data,especially tree-ring data,large-scale pre-cipitation field reconstruction has provided opportunities to explore underlying mechanisms further.Using point-by-point regression,we reconstructed the April-September precipitation field in China for the past～530 years on the basis of 590 proxy records,including 470 tree-ring width chronologies and 120 drought/flood indices.Our regression models explained average 50％of the variance in precipi-tation.In the statistical test on calibration and verification,our models passed the significance level that assured reconstruction quality.The reconstruction data performed well,showing consistency and better quality than previously reported reconstructions.The first three leading modes of variability in the recon-struction revealed the main distribution modes of precipitation over China.Wet/drought and extremely wet/drought years accounted for 12.81％/10.92％(68 years/58 years)and 1.69％/3.20％(9 years/17 years)of the past～530 years in China,respectively.Major extreme drought events can be identified explicitly in our reconstruction.The detailed features of the Chongzhen Great Drought(1637-1643),the Wanli Great Drought(1585-1590),and the Ding-Wu Great Famine(1874-1879),indicated the existence of poten-tially different underlying mechanisms that need further exploration.Although further improvements can be made for remote uninhabited areas and large deserts,our gridded reconstruction of April-September precipitation in China over the past～530 years can provide a solid database for studies on the attribution of climate change and the mechanism of extreme drought events.

Key words

Precipitation reconstruction/Tree rings/Historical documents/Precipitation variability/Extreme droughts

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基金项目

National Key Research and Development Program of China(2018YFA0605601)

Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(XDA20070101)

National Natural Science Foundation of China(41572353)

National Natural Science Foundation of China(41401228)

National Natural Science Foundation of China(41690113)

出版年

2024

科学通报(英文版)

中国科学院

科学通报(英文版)

CSTPCD

ISSN：1001-6538

参考文献量2

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