首页|碳交易如何影响绿色低碳发展?——基于多期DID与连续DID的经验研究

碳交易如何影响绿色低碳发展?——基于多期DID与连续DID的经验研究

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碳交易如何影响以绿色全要素生产率为核心指标的绿色低碳发展,需进行实证检验.基于2005-2019年中国省际面板数据,运用多期DID模型评估碳交易对绿色低碳发展的影响及其作用机制.结果表明:碳交易促进了试点地区绿色低碳发展,在经过安慰剂、PSM-DID、剔除用能权交易试点样本等一系列稳健性检验后,结论仍成立;碳交易实施对能源结构优化、产业结构升级与技术进步具有正向影响,绿色能源消费占比增加、高技术产业结构提升与技术进步是碳交易提高试点地区绿色低碳发展水平的主要机制.构建连续DID模型,研究碳交易规模对绿色低碳发展的影响,发现碳交易规模扩大对绿色低碳发展水平具有正向影响.研究结论为碳交易助力绿色低碳发展提供了经验支持,也为区域碳市场及全国统一碳市场的进一步扩容提供了有价值的启示.
How Does Carbon Trading Affect Green and Low-Carbon Development?Empirical Research Based on Multi-Period DID and Continuous DID
How carbon trading affects green low-carbon development with green total factor productivity as the core indicator needs to be empirically tested.Based on China's provincial panel data from 2005 to 2019,the multi-period DID model is used to evaluate the impact of carbon trading on green and low-carbon development and its mechanism.The results show that carbon trading promotes green and low-carbon development in the pilot areas.After a series of robustness tests such as placebo,PSM-DID,and excluding the pilot samples of energy trading,the conclusion is still valid.The implementation of carbon trading has a positive impact on energy structure optimization,industrial structure upgrading and technological progress.The increase in the proportion of green energy consumption,the improvement of high-tech industrial structure and technological progress are the main mechanisms for carbon trading to improve the level of green and low-carbon development in pilot areas.A continuous DID model is constructed to study the impact of carbon trading scale on green and low-carbon development.It is found that the expansion of carbon trading scale has a positive impact on the level of green and low-carbon development.The research conclusions provide empirical support for carbon trading to promote green and low-carbon development,and also provide valuable enlightenment for the further expansion of regional carbon market and national unified carbon market.

carbon tradinggreen and low-carbon developmentgreen total factor productivitymulti-period DIDcontinuous DID

马兆良、徐晓庆

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安徽大学 经济学院,安徽 合肥 230601

安徽大学 大数据与统计学院,安徽 合肥 230039

碳交易 绿色低碳发展 绿色全要素生产率 多期DID 连续DID

安徽省高等学校人文社会科学研究重点项目

SK2021A0027

2024

科学与管理
山东省科学院

科学与管理

CHSSCD
影响因子:0.38
ISSN:1003-8256
年,卷(期):2024.44(2)
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