"双碳"目标下煤电革命的路径目标
The path of coal to electricity revolution under the goals of carbon peak and carbon neutral
刘新杰 1杨英明 1赵勇强1
作者信息
- 1. 北京低碳清洁能源研究院 煤炭开采水资源保护与利用全国重点实验室,北京 102209
- 折叠
摘要
我国要实现"双碳"目标的核心措施是进行煤电革命,要积极发展可再生能源及核电,实现规模化和安全稳定供应;逐步减退化石能源,有序做好煤炭减量替代.阐述了我国能源生产结构、能源生产安全形势、煤电共生发展趋势,并采用安全可靠、经济可行、绿色低碳三要素对当前煤电结构进行了分析.结果表明,煤电革命的前半场煤炭将依然是我国的主体能源,发挥能源安全基石作用,后半场煤炭是主要能源,发挥战略主动兜底作用.总结分析了我国构建的现代能源体系,预计 2060 年,煤炭产量为20 亿～25 亿t,约四分之一产量用于煤电(5 亿～10 亿t),发挥调峰和应急备用功能;届时煤电比重完成置换(30%,70%),电力结构比例预计为煤电30%、水电20%、风电20%、核电20%、太阳能10%.
Abstract
In China,the core strategy to achieve the goals of carbon peak and carbon neutral is carrying out the coal to electricity revolution.It should actively developing renewable energy and nuclear power to achieve large-scale,secure and stable supplies,gradually reducing fossil fuels and replacing coal in an orderly manner.This study expounds the energy production structure,energy production safety situation and the development trend of coal and electricity symbiosis in China,and analyzes the current coal to electricity structure with three elements of safety,reliability,economic feasibility and green and low carbon.The results show that in the first half of the coal to electricity revolution,coal will remain the primary energy source in our country and play a cornerstone role for energy security,while in the second half,coal will be the main energy and play a strategic role.The paper concludes with an analysis of the modern energy system constructed in China,projecting that by 2060,coal production will be approximately 2.0 to 2.5 billion tons,with around a quarter used for electricity generation(0.5 billion to 1.0 billion tons),which will play the functions of peak-shaving and emergency backup.At that time,the proportion of coal to electricity will be replaced(30%,70%),and the proportion of power structure will be 30%coal,20%hydropower,20%wind power,20%nuclear power and 10%solar energy.
关键词
"双碳"目标/煤炭/煤电革命/新能源/结构调整Key words
goals of carbon peak and carbon neutral/coal/coal to electricity revolution/new energy/structural adjustment引用本文复制引用
基金项目
国家自然科学基金基础科学中心项目(72088101)
国家自然科学基金青年基金(52004012)
国家能源集团科技创新项目(GJNY-21-44)
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据