Study on the Dynamic Evolution Law of Provincial Coal Supply and Demand Patterns Under the Carbon Peak Heterogeneous Scenario
The adjustment of coal industry in various provinces and regions under the carbon peak target has aggravated the complexity of China's coal supply and demand pattern.It is very important to analyze the evolution trend of China's provincial coal supply and demand pattern under the carbon peak heterogeneous scenario.The SD model of provincial coal supply and demand was constructed by introducing the heterogeneous influence factors of carbon peak area.The historical data from 2013 to 2021 were selected as input parameters to predict the consumption of coal resources in each province of China in 2025.Combined with the adjustment of coal production capacity,the coal demand gap and coal supply and demand pattern in each province in 2025 were calculated and discussed.The results are drawn as follows.Firstly,in 2025,China plans to shift the coal consumption pattern to the central and western regions,the concentration of coal consumption in the western regions will increase,and the phenomenon of"off-site transfer of electricity coal consumption"will continue to exist.Secondly,the coal supply center is gradually concentrated in the"three western"areas,and the coal production capacity in the coal-rich areas still needs to be strengthened.Thirdly,the contradiction between supply and demand among regions will gradually ease,the pressure of long-term coal transportation will decrease,and the pressure of coal transportation in the province will increase.The research results have certain reference value for ensuring the stable supply of coal and energy security.
Carbon peakScenario analysisCoal supply and demandEvolution law
万方数据
维普
