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计及多元不确定性的综合能源系统优化配置

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  • 国家科技期刊平台
  • NETL
  • NSTL
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综合能源系统的优化配置关键在于设备选型与数量配置，而能源负荷负荷和可再生能源出力预测误差以及故障发生的不确定性将直接影响配置方案的合理性以及经济性。为此，本文提出一种考虑源-网-荷多元不确定性的综合能源系统多目标-机会约束规划方法。考虑可再生能源出力与负荷需求预测误差引起的不确定性，本文构建了满足置信概率的能量供需平衡约束;针对供能网络中设备N-1故障引起的不确定性，提出调整裕度模型，进而构建了调整裕度与N-1设备能量缺额的机会约束。对于获得的帕累托解集，采用信息熵与逼近理想排序法构建多准则评价模型，以确定最优的系统配置。将本文方法应用于某区域综合能源系统的最优结构设计，实验结果表明，本文方法的有效性与可靠性。
Optimal configuration for integrated energy system considering multiple uncertainties
The key of achieving the optimal configuration of integrated energy system(IES)is the selection of equipment types and determination of their number,however,the forecasting errors of energy demand load and renewable energy output,and the failure of equipment,will directly affect the rationality and economy of the configuration scheme.Therefore,this paper proposes a multi-objective chance constraint programming method for the IES considering source-network-load multiple uncertainty.This one considers the uncertainty caused by the forecast error of renewable energy output and load demand,and constructs an energy supply and demand balance constraint that satisfies the confidence probability.Aiming at the uncertainty caused by the N-l failure of equipment,we propose an adjustment margin model.On this basis,the chance constraint of adjusting margin and energy deficit of N-1 equipment is constructed.For the obtained Pareto solution set,a multi-criteria evaluation model is carried out by using the information entropy and technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution(TOPSIS)methods to determine the optimal system energy supply structure.Finally,the proposed method is applied to the optimal configuration of a regional IES,and the effectiveness and reliability are illustrated via experimental results.

integrated energy systemuncertaintyN-1 failurechance constraint programmingmulti-criteria evalua-tion

周帆、陈龙、赵珺、王伟

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工业装备智能控制与优化教育部重点实验室(大连理工大学),辽宁大连 116024

大连理工大学控制科学与工程学院,辽宁大连 116024

综合能源系统 不确定性 N-1故障 机会约束 多准则评价

国家重点研发计划国家自然科学基金国家自然科学基金国家自然科学基金大连市优秀青年科技人才计划

2017YFA070030061833003U1908218620030722018RJ01

2024

10.7641/CTA.2023.20337

控制理论与应用
华南理工大学 中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院

控制理论与应用

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子：1.076
ISSN：1000-8152
年,卷(期)：2024.41(3)
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