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构建预测儿童肺炎支原体合并其他病原体感染的列线图模型

To Construction of a Nomogram Model for Predicting the Infection of Mycoplasma Pneumoniae and Other Pathogens in Children

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目的 构建儿童肺炎支原体(MP)合并其他病原体感染的临床-影像学的列线图预测模型.方法 回顾性分析2023年6月至2023年12月因肺炎收治入院的患儿资料.所有的胸部CT图像评估均由两名影像诊断医师采用盲法、随机评估.影像学特征的评估包括:病变累及单侧、双侧肺叶;病变累及肺叶数目;有无磨玻璃密度影(GGO);有无肺叶、肺段实变;有无"网格影";支气管狭窄、闭塞;有无"树雾征";有无胸腔积液;纵隔有无增大淋巴结(淋巴结增大的标准为短径≥10 mm).采用SPSS 26.0统计软件进行数据分析.单纯MP感染、MP合并其他病原体感染患儿两组间比较采用t检验、Mann-Whitney U或x2检验.列线图分析采用R软件.采用受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线评估模型的预测效能.P<0.05为差异具有统计学意义.结果 共纳入126例MP感染患者,MP合并其他病原体感染49例(38.9%).患儿的平均年龄为(7.0±2.0)岁.39例(79.6%)MP合并其他病原体感染组患儿发生支气管狭窄,单纯MP感染组仅有27例(35.1%)(P<0.001).18例(36.7%)MP合并其他病原体感染组患儿出现"网格影",而单纯MP感染组患儿仅9例(11.7%)(P<0.01).MP合并其他病原体感染组有40例(81.6%)患儿表现为GGO,单纯MP感染组52例(66.2%)(P=0.082).降钙素原预测MP合并其他病原体感染的OR值为14.465."网格影"、GGO、支气管狭窄预测MP合并其他病原体感染的OR值分别为3.217、4.022和9.222.临床-影像学的列线图模型,其预测MP合并其他病原体感染的曲线下面积(AUC)为0.838,敏感度、特异度分别为82.1%、84.0%.结论 基于临床-影像学的列线图模型能够较好地预测儿童MP合并其他病原体感染.
Objective To construct a clinical-radiological nomogram predictive model for Mycoplasma pneumoniae(Mycoplasma pneumoniae,MP)with co-infection of other pathogens.Methods A retrospective analysis was conducted on the data of children admitted to our institution for pneumonia between June 2023 and December 2023.All chest CT ima-ges were evaluated by two radiologists using a blinded and random method.The evaluation of imaging characteristics in-cludes:involvement of unilateral or bilateral lung lobes by the lesion;number of lung lobes involved;presence or absence of ground glass opacity(GGO);presence or absence of consolidation of lung lobes and segments;presence or absence of grid shadow;bronchial stenosis;presence or absence of tree-in-the-fog sign;presence or absence of pleural effusion;presence or absence of enlarged lymph nodes in the mediastinum(the standard for enlarged lymph nodes is a short diameter of≥10 mm).Data analysis was performed using SPSS 26.0 statistical software.Comparisons between the two groups of children with simple MPP infection and MPP co-infected with other pathogens were performed using t-tests,Mann-Whitney U tests,or chi-square tests.Nomogram analysis was performed using R software.The predictive performance of the model was eval-uated using the receiver operating characteristic(receiver operating characteristic,ROC)curve.P<0.05 was considered statistically significant.Results A total of 126 patients with MP infection were included in this study,including 49 cases(38.9%)with co-infection with other pathogens.The mean age of the children was(7.0±2.0)years.Seventy-nine per-cent(79.6%)of children with MP co-infected with other pathogens developed bronchiectasis,in contrast to only 35.1%of children with simple MP infection(P<0.001).18(36.7%)children with MP co-infected with other pathogens devel-oped grid opacities,compared to only 11.7%of children with simple MP infection(P<0.01).Eighty-one percent(81.6%)of children with MP co-infected with other pathogens exhibited GGO,compared to only 66.2%of children with sim-ple MP infection(P=0.082).The odds ratio(OR)for procalcitonin in predicting MP co-infected with other pathogens was 14.465.The OR value for grid opacities,GGO,and bronchiectasis in predicting MP co-infected with other pathogens were 3.217,4.022,and 9.222,respectively.The clinical-radiological nomogram model had an area under the curve(AUC)of 0.838,with sensitivity and specificity values of 82.1%and 84.0%,respectively.Conclusion The clinical-radiological nomogram model based on clinical and radiological features can effectively predict Mycoplasma pneumoniae co-infected with other pathogens in children.

Mycoplasma pneumoniaeMycoplasma pneumoniae pneumoniaChest CTBronchoalveolar lavageNomogram

刘晓涵、徐文北、孟令建、王自豪、张贺、孙潇楠、孟闫凯、康海全、茅一萍、胡春峰、徐凯

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221002 徐州医科大学附属医院医学影像科

221004 徐州医科大学医学影像学院

221002 徐州,江苏省医学影像与数字医学工程研究中心

221002 徐州医科大学附属医院儿科

221002 徐州医科大学附属医院检验科

221002 徐州医科大学附属医院感染管理科

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肺炎支原体 肺炎支原体肺炎 胸部CT 支气管肺泡灌洗 列线图

江苏省中医药科技发展计划项目江苏省卫生健康委老年健康科研项目

MS2021100LKM2022018

2024

临床放射学杂志
黄石市医学科技情报所

临床放射学杂志

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:0.872
ISSN:1001-9324
年,卷(期):2024.43(9)