Objective To analyze the risk factors of cardiovascular disease in maintenance dialysis patients with end-stage renal disease(ESRD),and to construct a nomogram model for risk prediction.Methods A total of 183 ESRD patients on maintenance dialysis admitted to our hospital from March 2020 to November 2022 were retrospectively enrolled.According to the presence or absence of cardiovascular disease,they were divided into concurrent group(92 cases)and non-concurrent group(91 cases).General data of patients in both group were collected and grouped for comparison.Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to evaluate the risk factors of cardiovascular disease in ESRD maintenance dialysis patients,and a nomogram model was constructed based on this.Bootstrap method was used to verify the nomogram model,and the calibration curve was drawn to evaluate the calibration degree of the nomogram model.The receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve was used to evaluate the predictive value of the nomogram model.Results Age≥60 years old,history of diabetes,proportion of patients with anemia,age on dialysis,uric acid,low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and blood phosphorus levels in concurrent group were higher than those in non-concurrent group(P＜0.05).The results of multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that age ≥ 60 years old,anemia,age on dialysis,uric acid and blood phosphorus levels were all risk factors for ESRD maintenance dialysis patients complicated with cardiovascular disease(P＜0.05).Based on the above risk factors,a nomogram model was constructed and the ROC curve results showed that the area under the ROC curve(AUC)of the nomogram for predicting cardiovascular disease in ESRD maintenance dialysis patients was 0.827,with sensitivity of 80.43％and specificity of 79.12％.The consistency index of the nomogram model was 0.833 and the calibration curve has a good fit with the ideal curve.Conclusion Age≥60 years old,anemia,age on dialysis,uric acid and blood phosphorus levels are all risk factors for ESRD maintenance dialysis patients complicated with cardiovascular disease.Based on this,constructing a nomogram model can more intuitively predict the risk of ESRD maintenance dialysis patients complicated with cardiovascular disease,and the prediction efficiency is good.
End-stage renal diseaseCardiovascular diseaseNomogramPrediction model
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
