胆囊癌病人预后动态列线图的构建及验证
Construction and verification of dynamic prognosis graph of gallbladder cancer patients
蒋智洋 1灿海乐 2汤雅芬 1李晓刚 3廖晓锋3
作者信息
- 1. 430065 武汉科技大学医学院
- 2. 湖北省枣阳市第一人民医院普外科
- 3. 湖北省襄阳市中心医院普外科
- 折叠
摘要
目的 构建一种列线图来预测胆囊癌(GBC)病人的预后.方法 在SEER数据库中提取GBC病人的临床病理数据,采用Cox回归分析GBC病人的独立预后因素,构建列线图,并在训练集和验证集中对列线图进行验证.结果 年龄、T分期、M分期、组织学分级、放疗、手术、肿瘤直径为GBC病人独立预后因素,差异有统计学意义(P＜0.05).在训练集中,C指数为0.735(95％CI=0.721～0.749),1、3,5 年的 AUC 值分别为 0.821、0.820 和 0.833.在验证集中,C 指数为 0.733(95％CI=0.711～0.755),1、3,5 年的 AUC 值分别为 0.816、0.807 和 0.827.校准曲线表明,列线图预测值与实际观测值吻合度较高.决策曲线表明,列线图模型比TNM分期系统具有更好的预测能力.结论 构建的GBC病人预后动态列线图具有较高的准确性和可靠性.
Abstract
Objective To construct a nomogram to predict the prognosis of patients with gallbladder cancer(GBC).Methods The clinicopathological data of GBC patients were extracted from the SEER database,and the independent prognostic factors of GBC patients were analyzed by Cox regression,and a nomogram was constructed.Finally,the column diagrams in the training queue and validation queue are verified.Results Age,T stage,M stage,histological grade,radiotherapy,surgery and tumor size were independent prognostic factors in GBC patients,and the differences were statistically significant(P＜0.05).In the training cohort,the C index was 0.735(95％CI=0.721～0.749),and the AUC values at 1,3 and 5 years were 0.821,0.820 and 0.833,respectively.In the verification group,the C index was 0.733(95％CI=0.711～0.755),and the AUC values for 1,3 and 5 years were 0.816,0.807 and 0.827,respectively.The calibration curve shows that the predicted values of the nomogram are in good agreement with the observed values.The decision curve shows that the nomogram model has better prediction ability than TNM staging system.Conclusion The constructed dynamic prognosis nomogram of GBC patients has high accuracy and reliability.
关键词
胆囊癌/预后模型/列线图/危险因素/SEERKey words
gallbladder carcinoma/prognostic model/nomograph/risk factors/SEER引用本文复制引用
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据