首页|极低位直肠癌腹腔镜经括约肌间切除术后肛门功能不良的影响因素及预测模型构建

极低位直肠癌腹腔镜经括约肌间切除术后肛门功能不良的影响因素及预测模型构建

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目的 分析极低位直肠癌腹腔镜经括约肌间切除术(Lap-ISR)术后肛门功能不良的影响因素,并以此构建预测模型并验证,以期为改善极低位直肠癌病人Lap-ISR术后肛门功能提供指导依据.方法 回顾性选取2020年6月~2022年6月在泰州人民医院进行Lap-ISR手术的极低位直肠癌病人127例,术后对病人进行为期12个月的随访,用Wexner评分评估病人术后肛门功能,根据肛门失禁评分(Wexner)分为肛门功能良好组(106例)与肛门功能不良组(21例),收集病人临床资料并分析病人术后肛门功能不良的危险因素,并以此构建Nomogram列线图模型预测病人Lap-ISR术后肛门功能不良发生风险,并绘制受试者工作特征曲线(ROC),用曲线下面积(AUC)分析预测模型对病人Lap-ISR术后肛门功能不良的预测效能.结果 极低位直肠癌病人Lap-ISR术后肛门功能不良发生率为16.54%(21/127).单因素分析显示,两组性别、年龄、体质量指数、临床分期、合并基础疾病、手术时间、术中出血量、吻合方式、肿瘤下缘距齿状线距离比较差异均无统计学意义(P>0.05).肛门功能不良组肿瘤直径≥5 cm占比、新辅助化疗占比、吻合口距肛缘距离<2 cm、吻合口漏占比均高于肛门功能良好组(P<0.05).Cox多因素回归分析显示,肿瘤直径≥5cm(OR=5.124)、新辅助化疗(OR=5.761)、吻合口漏(OR=6.881)是病人术后肛门功能的危险因素(P<0.05).肿瘤直径≥5 cm病人Wexner评分高于肿瘤直径<5 cm病人,合并新辅助化疗Wexner评分高于无新辅助化疗病人,合并吻合口漏Wexner评分高于无吻合口漏病人(P<0.05).Bootstrap 法内部验证显示,C-index 指数为 0.785(95%CI:0.692~0.851).ROC 曲线结果显示,列线图模型预测病人术后肛门功能不良的灵敏度为85.70%、特异性为88.70%,AUC为0.895(95%CI:0.795~0.984).结论 肿瘤直径、新辅助化疗、吻合口漏是极低位直肠癌病人Lap-ISR术后肛门功能不良的危险因素.基于上述危险因素建立的列线图风险预测模型评估病人术后肛门功能不良的风险效能良好.
Influencing factors of poor anal function after laparoscopic intersphincteric resection for extremely low rectal cancer and to construct a predictive model
Objective To analyze the influencing factors of poor anal function after laparoscopic intersphincteric resection(Lap-ISR)for extremely low rectal cancer,and to construct and verify a prediction model based on this model,in order to provide guidance for improving the anal function of patients with extremely low rectal cancer after Lap-ISR.Method A total of 127 patients with extremely low rectal cancer who underwent Lap-ISR in Taizhou People's Hospital from June 2020 to June 2022 were retrospectively selected.Patients were followed up for 12 months after surgery,and postoperative anal function was evaluated by the anal incontinence score(Wexner).According to Wexner score,the patients were divided into good anal function group(106 cases)and poor anal function group(21 cases).The clinical data of patients were collected and the risk factors affecting postoperative poor anal dysfunction were analyzed,and a Nomogram model was constructed to predict the risk of postoperative anal dysfunction in patients after Lap-ISR,and the receiver operating characteristic curve(ROC)was drawn.The area under the curve(AUC)was used to analyze the predictive efficacy of the prediction model for poor anal dysfunction after Lap-ISR.Result The incidence of anal dysfunction after Lap-ISR in patients with extremely low rectal cancer was 16.54%(21/127).Univariate analysis showed that there was no significant difference in gender,age,body mass index,clinical stage,combined underlying diseases,operation time,intraoperative blood loss,anastomosis method,and the distance from the lower edge of the tumor to the dentate line between the two groups(P>0.05).The proportion of tumor diameter≥5 cm,the proportion of neoadjuvant chemotherapy,the distance between anastomosis and anal verge<2 cm,and the proportion of anastomotic leakage in the anal dysfunction group were higher than those in the good anal function group(P<0.05).Cox multivariate regression analysis showed that tumor diameter≥5 cm(OR=5.124),neoadjuvant chemotherapy(OR=5.761)and anastomotic leakage(OR=6.881)were risk factors for postoperative anal function(P<0.05).Wexner score of patients with tumor diameter ≥5 cm was higher than that of patients with tumor diameter<5 cm,Wexner score of patients with neoadjuvant chemotherapy was higher than that of patients without neoadjuvant chemotherapy,and Wexner score of patients with anastomotic leakage was higher than that of patients without anastomotic leakage(P<0.05).Internal validation of Bootstrap method showed that the C-index was 0.785(95%CI:0.692-0.851).The results of ROC curve showed that the sensitivity and specificity of the nomogram model in predicting postoperative poor anal function of patients were 85.70%and 88.70%,respectively,and the AUC was 0.895(95%CI:0.795-0.984).Conclusion Tumor diameter,neoadjuvant chemotherapy and anastomotic leakage are risk factors for poor anal function after Lap-ISR in patients with extremely low rectal cancer.The nomogram risk prediction model based on the above risk factors has a good risk efficiency in evaluating the risk of postoperative anal dysfunction in patients.

extremely low rectal cancerlaparoscopic intersphincteric resectionanal functioninfluence factorrisk prediction modelnomogram

韩宁、王小冬、李迎春、周海华、潘琳琳、于晨

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225300 江苏省泰州市人民医院肛肠外科

极低位直肠癌 腹腔镜经括约肌间切除术 肛门功能 影响因素 风险预测模型 列线图

2024

临床外科杂志
中华医学会湖北分会

临床外科杂志

CSTPCD
影响因子:0.716
ISSN:1005-6483
年,卷(期):2024.32(8)