Establishment and validation of a predictive model for benign and malignant breast nodules based on ultrasound indicators
Objective To cunstruct and validate a predictive model to differentiate benign and malignant breast nodule based on ultrasound indicators.Methods A total of 288 patients with BI-RADS grade 4 and above from January 2021 to July 2023 were selected and divided into model group(n=201)and validation group(n=87)at a 7∶3 ratio.Patients underwent conventional Doppler ultrasound,ultrasonography and elastography.Patients in the model group were divided into benign and malignant groups using pathological examination as the gold standard,and the ultrasound indicators of the two groups were compared.LASSO regression was used to screen for latent variables and then a multivariate analysis was performed,which was used to develop and validate the column-line graphical model.Results Among the 201 patients in the model group,66 cases were confirmed as malignant nodules by pathological examination.The results of Logisitc regression analysis performed on the basis of LASSO regression showed that morphology,calcification,aspect ratio,axillary enlarged lymph nodes,time to peak,time to regress,and mean elasticity value were independent influencing factors for predicting benign or malignant breast nodules(P<0.05).The results of model validation showed that the area under the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve in the model group was 0.924(95%CI:0.883-0.964),with a sensitivity of 79.3%and a specificity of 93.9%;and in the validation group,the area under the ROC curve was 0.917(95%CI:0.875-0.959),with a sensitivity of 80.7%and a specificity of 89.4%.The calibration curve had a slope of 1 and an intercept of 0.000,and the model curve was essentially fitted diagonally to the ideal model.The effectiveness analysis results showed that when the prediction probability threshold was between 0.10 and 0.90,the net benefit of using this model to predict the benign and malignant breast nodules was the highest.Conclusion The model constructed in this study can be used to predict the benign and malignant breast nodules and provide a reference for benign and malignant screening in such patients.
Breast nodulesUltrasoundMultivariate analysisPredictive model
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
