Construction of a column chart prediction model for recurrence after tumor cell reduction surgery in patients with epithelial ovarian cancer
Objective To construct a column chart prediction model for recurrence of epithelial ovarian cancer(EOC)patients after cytoreductive surgery(CRS)to provide references for treatment decisions.Methods A retrospective analysis was conducted on the clinical data of 150 patients with EOC who underwent CRS treatment at Shaanxi Provincial People's Hospital from June 2019 to December 2021.Based on the recurrence rate within 2 years of follow-up,the patients were divided into a recurrence group(82 cases)and a non-recurrence group(68 cases).Baseline data differences between the two groups of patients were compared.Logistic regression model were used to analyze the influencing factors for recurrence after CRS in EOC patients.Based on the analysis results of influencing factors,a column chart prediction model was constructed,and the predictive value of this model for recurrence after CRS in EOC patients was tested.Results During the 2-year follow-up period,the recurrence rate of 150 patients with EOC was 54.67％(82/150).The maximum tumor diameter,degree of differentiation,surgical satisfaction,and serum 25 hydroxy vitamin D3[25-(OH)VD3]levels between the recurrence and non-recurrence groups were compared with statistical significant differences(P＜0.05).Through univariate and multivariate Logistic regression analysis,the results showed that tumor maximum diameter,differentiation degree,surgical satisfaction,and serum 25-(OH)VD3 were the influencing factors for CRS recurrence in EOC patients(P＜0.05).Based on the analysis of influencing factors,a column chart prediction model was constructed.Internal validation by Bootstrap showed that the model's prediction calibration curve was close to the standard curve,with a consistency index of 0.920.The working characteristic curve of the subjects was drawn,and the results showed that the area under the curve of the column chart prediction model predicting the recurrence of CRS in EOC patients was 0.920,with a 95％CI of 0.879～0.961(P＜0.001).Conclusion Serum 25-(OH)VD3,maximum tumor diameter,differentiation degree and surgical satisfaction are all influencing factors of CRS recurrence in EOC patients,and the column chart prediction model constructed based on these influencing factors has good predictive ability for CRS recurrence in EOC patients.
Epithelial ovarian cancerCytoreductive surgeryRecurrencePrediction model
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
