首页|美国转变国际经贸合作模式的逻辑与影响

美国转变国际经贸合作模式的逻辑与影响

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冷战之后,随着经济全球化的不断深入和国际分工的不断加深,多边的世界贸易组织和区域性的自由贸易协定成为主要的经贸合作框架.但自2017年特朗普就任美国总统以来,美国对世贸组织和自贸协定的重视程度显著下降,转而构建新型国际经贸合作框架.本文梳理美国自2020年以来建立的新型经贸合作框架,并与传统的自贸协定进行对比,从经济、政治、战略三个层面及国内国际两个维度分析其转变逻辑,在此基础上分析美国新型经贸合作框架的前景及影响.本文认为,美国构建的新型国际经贸合作模式大概率不能达到美国预期的战略效果,只可能在个别领域降低对中国产业链的依赖.当然,其对全球产业链的重新安排和布局也会对协定内的国家或地区带来一定的福利影响,对世界经贸体系和国际经贸规则同样有一定影响.对中国而言,随着美国大力推进"美国体系+非美体系"的建设,中国在参与全球分工时无疑会受到不利影响,中美双边经贸关系也将受到影响和冲击.
The Rationale and Implications of the US Paradigm Shift in International Economic and Trade Cooperation
After the Cold War,with the deepening of economic globalisation and international labour division,the World Trade Organization(WTO)and free trade agreements(FTAs)have become the two main mechanisms of international economic and trade cooperation for most economies,including the United States.However,the United States has been gradually changing its mode of international economic and trade cooperation since Donald Trump took office as the US president in 2017.Based on a list of international economic and trade agreements dominated by the United States since 2020,this paper analyses,in both domestic and international dimensions,the logic of the transformation from the economic,political and strategic perspectives.It then analyses the prospects and implications of the transformation of the US international economic and trade framework.The study finds that,despite the changes in the mode of international economic and trade cooperation led by the United States,it is unlikely to achieve its expected strategic objectives.Instead,it may only be possible to reduce its dependence on China's industrial chain in a few sectors.Yet,the restructuring of the global industrial chain led by the United States will not only affect the welfare of the countries or regions involved,but also influence the world trading system.As far as China is concerned,with the US actively promoting the construction of the"American and non-American system",China's participation in the global labour division will be negatively affected,and the development of Sino-US economic and trade relations will also be hindered.

Sino-US competitioninternational economic and trade cooperationfree trade agreementsupply chainhigh-tech industry

苏庆义、桂子豪

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中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所

中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所国际贸易研究室

中国社会科学院大学国际政治经济学院

中美竞争 国际经贸合作 自由贸易协定 供应链 高科技产业

中国社会科学院学科建设"登峰战略"资助计划

DF2023ZD33

2024

拉丁美洲研究
拉丁美洲研究所

拉丁美洲研究

CHSSCD
影响因子:0.233
ISSN:1002-6649
年,卷(期):2024.46(3)
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