Disaster Impact,Macroeconomic Stability and Monetary Policy Choice——Analysis of Decision Effects Based on a DSGE Model
Based on China's macroeconomic statistics from 1992 to 2021,this paper develops a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium(DSGE)model of New Keynesian economy including the impact of total factor productivity dis-aster.The model also considers such factors as Calvo price stickiness and investment adjustment cost,to analyze the regulatory effect of quantitative and price-based monetary policies on China's macro-economy against the impact of disasters.Under the impact of disasters,China's macro-economy presents a short-term downward trend.The two monetary policies have a significant improving adjustment effect on the economy in the short term,and they can re-store the equilibrium of China's macro-economy in the long term.The former significantly promotes the economical level in the short term but the recovery period is relatively long.The latter has a moderate adjustment effect and leads the economical level quickly to reaching the equilibrium.Therefore,the government should optimize and har-monize policies to alleviate the impact of the disasters on China's macro-economy.
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