Macroeconomic expectation studies have achieved rapid development in the past decade by introducing experimental economic research methods and integrating behavioral economic theories.In this field,a new paradigm of expectation research has been induced:identifying,capturing,and responding to the systematic bias between actual expectations and rational expectations.By examining the strategies for identifying systematic bias and its typical features,and by analyzing the evolutionary context and development trends of emerging expectation theories,this study finds that there are characteristics of systematic bias that are both under-reactive and over-reactive from different perspectives and dimensions.The theory of expectation is moving towards integrating incomplete information with bounded rationality.Direct communication with the public and clarifying the prospects of macroeconomic policies are conducive to enhancing the effectiveness of expectation management policies.
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