According to the national vision that carbon emissions will peak before 2030 and strive to achieve carbon neutrality before 2060,combined with the actual and medium-and long-term development planning of a city in Guangdong Province,Kaya model and scenario analysis method are used to predict and analyze the peak carbon dioxide emissions time and peak value of the city.The research results show that the city's carbon emissions will reach the peak in 2025 under the scenario of strengthening low carbon.