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镇江市二氧化碳排放现状及碳达峰预测

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分析了 2010-2022年镇江市碳排放现状及其特征,并应用STIRPAT模型进行碳达峰预测,得到以下结论:2010-2022年间镇江市二氧化碳排放量总体呈增加趋势,碳排放强度总体上呈下降趋势,表明地区经济发展对能耗的依赖性有所下降,绿色低碳发展已初见成效.在宽松情景下,镇江市无法实现2030年前碳达峰的目标;在基准情景下,镇江市将在2030年实现碳达峰,碳排放峰值为8 211.56万t;在严控情景下,镇江市将在2025年实现碳达峰,碳排放峰值为7 633.85万t.
The article analyzes the current situation and characteristics of carbon emissions in Zhenjiang City from 2010 to 2022,and applies the STIRPAT model to predict carbon peak.The following conclusions are drawn:the overall trend of carbon dioxide emissions in Zhenjiang City from 2010 to 2022 is an increase,while the overall trend of carbon emission intensity is a decrease,indicating that the dependence of regional economic development on energy consumption has decreased,and green and low-carbon development has shown initial results.In a relaxed scenario,Zhenjiang City is unable to achieve the goal of peaking carbon emissions by 2030;under the benchmark scenario,Zhenjiang City will achieve carbon peak by 2030,with a peak carbon emission of 82.115 6 million tons;under the strict control scenario,Zhenjiang City will achieve a peak in carbon emissions by 2025,with a peak of 76.338 5 million tons.

carbon emissionsSTIRPAT modelridge regressionZhenjiang City

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江苏省镇江环境监测中心,江苏镇江 212000

碳排放 STIRPAT模型 岭回归 镇江市

镇江市社会发展指导性科技计划项目江苏省镇江环境监测中心监测科研基金项目

FZ2021050ZJ2105

2024

环境保护与循环经济
辽宁环境科学研究院 辽宁省环境科学学会

环境保护与循环经济

影响因子:0.424
ISSN:1674-1021
年,卷(期):2024.44(8)