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内蒙古工业碳排放测算及影响因素分解

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在"双碳"目标的背景下,内蒙古工业能源绿色低碳转型刻不容缓.以2005-2021年内蒙古工业碳排放为切入点,采用广义迪式指数分解法对工业能源、固定资产投资和工业总产值等碳排放影响因素进行分解.结果表明:从内蒙古工业发展状况来看,内蒙古轻重工业结构不平衡,从能源消费情况来看,内蒙古工业碳排放量总体呈现增长趋势,研究区间内平均增长率为8.19%,高碳排放行业有6个,累积碳排放量占到内蒙古工业总体碳排放量的90%以上;运用影响因素定量分析,产出规模、投资规模、产出碳强度是促进碳排放的主要因素,投资碳强度对碳排放的促增效应比较微弱,而能源效率对于碳排放的抑制作用比较微弱,2005-2021年内蒙古工业的整体碳排放效应在减弱.基于此,提出政府应鼓励引导企业进行以节能减排为目的的投资活动,大力发展低碳技术以优化产业和能源结构.
In the context of"double carbon"goal development,Inner Mongolia's industrial energy green low-carbon transformation is urgent.Taking Inner Mongolia's industrial carbon emissions from 2005 to 2021 as the entry point,this paper adopts the generalized Divisia index decomposition method to decompose the influencing factors of carbon emissions such as industrial energy,fixed asset investment and industrial gross output value.Finally,it is concluded that:from the perspective of Inner Mongolia's industrial development,Inner Mongolia light and heavy industrial structure imbalance,in terms of energy consumption,industrial carbon emissions in Inner Mongolia showed an overall growth trend,the average growth rate in the study range was 8.19%,there are six high-carbon industries,the cumulative carbon emissions account for more than 90%of the total industrial carbon emissions in Inner Mongolia;applying the quantitative analysis of influencing factors,output scale,investment scale and output carbon intensity are the main factors promoting carbon emission,the effect of carbon intensity investment on carbon emission is weak,the dampening effect of energy efficiency on carbon emissions is relatively weak,from 2005 to 2021,the overall carbon emission effect of Inner Mongolia industry is weakening.Therefore,the government should encourage and guide enterprises to carry out investment activities for the purpose of energy conservation and emission reduction,and vigorously develop low-carbon technologies to optimize industrial and energy structure.

industrial carbon emissionsfactor decompositiongeneralized Divisia index methodInner Mongolia

段玉英、穆晓敏

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内蒙古科技大学经济与管理学院,内蒙古包头 014010

包头市润福龙工程有限公司,内蒙古包头 014010

工业碳排放 因素分解 广义迪式指数分解法 内蒙古

2024

环境保护与循环经济
辽宁环境科学研究院 辽宁省环境科学学会

环境保护与循环经济

影响因子:0.424
ISSN:1674-1021
年,卷(期):2024.44(9)