辽宁化工2024,Vol.53Issue(3) :471-475.

基于ARIMA线性时间序列的埋地输油管道剩余寿命预测

Residual Life Prediction of Buried Oil Pipeline Based on ARIMA Linear Time Series

孙建波
辽宁化工2024,Vol.53Issue(3) :471-475.

基于ARIMA线性时间序列的埋地输油管道剩余寿命预测

Residual Life Prediction of Buried Oil Pipeline Based on ARIMA Linear Time Series

孙建波1
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作者信息

  • 1. 新疆油田油气储运分公司乌昌天然气中心站,新疆 乌鲁木齐 830000
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摘要

针对埋地输油管道剩余寿命预测问题,构建基于 ARIMA 线性时间序列的埋地输油管道剩余寿命预测模型,并对输油管道剩余寿命进行预测.结果表明:基于ARIMA模型预测出该段管道的剩余寿命为 27 年,与专业的压力实验计算出的剩余使用寿命 28 年最为接近,与其他模型对比研究,ARIMA模型更为准确地预测出管道剩余寿命.

Abstract

Aiming at the problem of residual life prediction of buried oil pipeline,a residual life prediction model of buried oil pipeline based on ARIMA linear time series was constructed,and the residual life of oil pipeline was predicted.The results showed that based on ARIMA model,the residual life of this pipeline was predicted to be 27 years,which was the closest to the residual life of 28 years calculated by professional pressure experiments.Compared with other models,ARIMA model could predict the remaining life of the pipeline more accurately.

关键词

输油管道/剩余寿命/ARIMA时间序列

Key words

Oil pipelines/Residual service life/ARIMA time-series

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出版年

2024
辽宁化工
辽宁省化工学会

辽宁化工

影响因子:0.234
ISSN:1004-0935
参考文献量22
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