Fitting of extreme distribution for precipitation in a short-period and its application in Hu′nan province
Selection of an appropriate extreme distribution model will help to improve the accuracy of the extreme series.Based on hourly precipitation data at 97 weather stations during 1981 to 2010 in Hu′nan province,annual and seasonal maximum precipitation series with period of 1 hour,3 hours and 12 hours were established in each station.Three short-period precipitation extreme series distributions were fitted in terms of a Pearson-Ⅲ,a Gum-bel,a Lognormal,a Cauchy and a Weibull distribution functions.The results indicate that three short-period precip-itation extreme series distributions can be well fitted with the Gumbel model in the middle and north areas of Hu′nan province.The Weibull model is ranked second,while the series can only be fitted with the Gumbel model in the south area.According to these analysis,precipitation extreme in each station with recurrence interval of 100 years is calculated using the Gumbel distribution.It suggests that large value centers of annual precipitation with period of 1 hour,3 hours and 12 hours series occur in the southeast,west and northwest areas of Hu′nan province, respectively.Seasonal and annual extreme precipitation centers are slightly different.
Short durationExtreme precipitationDistribution fittingCentennial extreme estimates
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据
维普
