摘要
利用1981-2010年闽东沿海地区气候资料，根据《龙眼寒害等级标准》(QX/T168-2012)，采用主成分分析法和概率分布函数拟合等统计学方法，分析闽东地区龙眼寒害年及月的分布特征，并结合历史龙眼寒害资料进行对比分析，计算闽东地区龙眼寒害、发生概率和风险概率。结果表明：闽东沿海地区11月至翌年3月平均气温和极端最低气温随年代呈略升高的趋势，积寒和寒害指数随年代呈减少的趋势，有利于龙眼寒害的减少；而日最低气温和积寒年际波动较大，个别年份仍出现极端最低值，引发重度以上寒害，龙眼寒害发生仍具有不确定性。闽东沿海4个县市区龙眼中度寒害发生频率较低，但重度以上寒害发生频率较高(平均为0.14)。闽东地区龙眼年寒害指数与12、1月和2月寒害指数均呈显著正相关关系，其中年寒害指数与1月寒害指数相关系数最大。12月至翌年2月寒害指数可以反映闽东地区冬季龙眼寒害的主要特征，指示龙眼寒害的主要发生时段和重要影响期。通过闽东地区龙眼寒害历史资料验证分析，年及月龙眼寒害指数的年际分布可以反映历史寒害发生的主要特点。风险分析表明，1981-2010年闽东沿海地区龙眼寒害发生概率较大(0.42-0.43)，风险概率为0.10-0.16。
Abstract
Using climate data in the coastal areas of northeastern Fujian province from 1981 to 2010, distribution of annual and monthly chilling injury of Dimocarpus longan was analyzed by statistical methods such as a principal component analysis (PCA) and a probability distribution function fitting analysis and so on in terms of China meteorology industry standards " Grade of chilling injury to Dimocarpus longan trees" (QX/T168-2012). Grades,occurrence frequency and risk probability of chilling injury for Dimocarpus longan in the northeastern Fujian prov-ince were calculated by combining corresponding historical records. The results show that annual mean air tempera-ture and extreme minimum air temperature from November to next March both are in slightly increasing trends,while annual accumulated cold and chilling injury index are in decreasing trends, which is favorable to reduce chill-ing injury disaster for Dimocarpus longan. Inter-annual fluctuation of the minimum air temperature and accumula-ted cold is obvious, and there still appears extreme minimum value in individual years which leads to chilling injurydisaster with serious grades and even beyond. It suggests that chilling injury disaster for Dimocarpus longan is ofuncertainty. Frequency of moderate chilling injury for Dimocarpus longan is lower in four coastal areas of Fujianprovince ,while that of severe grade and above is higher (average is 0.14 ). Annual chilling injury index of Dimo-carpus longan is significantly positive correlation with that in December, January and February, especially with thatin January. Chilling injury index during December to next February could reflect the main characteristics of chillinginjury in winter, and it is indicative to main occurrence period and important influence period of chilling injury forDimocarpus longan. Analysis of historical records of chilling injury suggests that variation of annual and monthlychilling injury index of Dimocarpus longan displays the main features of chilling injury disaster. Risk analysisshows that probability of chilling injury for Dimocarpus longan is greater between 0.42-0. 43 and risk probabilityis between 0.10-0.16.
基金项目
中国气象科学研究院基本科研业务费专项资金项目(2013Z008)
宁德市科技计划项目(20130004)
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据