首页|基于目标对象检验法的四川省两种数值模式暴雨预报对比分析

基于目标对象检验法的四川省两种数值模式暴雨预报对比分析

Comparative analysis of heavy rain forecast in Sichuan province from two numerical models based on the object recognition method

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根据2021年四川省31次暴雨过程预报偏差检验,选取ECMWF预报雨带明显偏西、CMA-MESO预报较好的3次个例,基于目标对象检验法对强降水落区(≥25 mm)从位置偏差、面积偏差、雨带走向和降水强度4个方面对两模式的预报偏差特征和主要原因进行对比分析.结果表明:ECMWF模式降水落区预报较实况偏西偏北,且偏西偏差距离(59.06～123.67 km)显著大于偏北偏差距离(8.23～53.59 km),而CMA-MESO模式雨带走向和位置预报与实况更为接近.两模式降水面积预报均大于实况,ECMWF模式较实况偏大7.0％～34.3％,CMA-MES O模式偏大25.2％～45.9％.两模式降水量平均值预报与实况偏差幅度为-3.5％～20.0％,但降水量极值预报较实况偏差较大,偏差幅度为50.1％～196.9％.检验分析表明,出现在副热带高压边缘,受高原涡或西南涡影响的四川暴雨过程,在ECMWF模式预报强降水落区(≥25 mm)偏西的情况下,CMA-MESO模式可以提供订正参考.
According to the deviation test of 31 heavy rain process forecasts in Sichuan province in 2021,3 forecas-ting cases predicted by the ECMWF(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts)model and the CMA-MESO(China Meteorological Administration Mesoscale Model)model were selected for comparisons.For these three cases,the rain bands predicted by the ECMWF model were westerly biased,and those produced by the CMA-MESO were better.Based on the object-oriented verification method,the characteristics and main reasons for the bias of the two models in the heavy precipitation falling area(≥25 mm)were compared from four aspects:lo-cation deviation,area deviation,rain band trend,and precipitation intensity.The results show that the falling region of the precipitation forecasted by the ECMWF model biases westward and northward,and the westward deviation distance(59.06～123.67 km)is significantly larger than the northerly deviation distance(8.23～53.59 km),while that forecasted by the CMA-MESO model is closer to the forecast.The precipitation areas forecasted by the ECMWF and CMA-MESO models both exceed the actual areas with the ECMWF model being over 7.0％～34.3％and CMA-MESO model being over 25.2％～45.9％,respectively.The deviation between the average pre-cipitation forecast and the actual precipitation is-3.5％～20.0％,but the extreme precipitation forecast is larger than the actual precipitation deviation,with a deviation range of 50.1％～196.9％.The test analysis shows that the CMA-MESO model can provide a correction reference for the heavy rainfall process in Sichuan province,which occurs at the edge of subtropical high and is affected by the plateau vortex or the southwest vortex when the ECM-WF model forecasts the heavy rainfall area(≥25 mm)to the west.

Target object verification methodECMWF modelCMA-MESO model

王佳津、王彬雁、肖递祥、龙柯吉

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四川省气象台,四川成都 610072

中国气象局成都高原气象研究所/高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室,四川成都 610072

目标对象检验法 ECMWF模式 CMA-MESO模式

国家自然科学基金重点项目四川省科技计划重点研发项目中国气象局创新发展专项中国气象局创新发展专项中国气象局西南区域气象中心成渝双城经济圈气象服务技术创新团队项目高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室研究型业务面上专项高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室研究型业务面上专项高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室重点专项中国气象局复盘总结专项

919373012022YFS0542CXFZ2021J027CXFZ2023J016SCQXKJQN202213SCQXKJQN202214SCQXKJZD2020002FPZJ2023-112

2023

10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2023.06.006

气象与环境学报
中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所

气象与环境学报

CSTPCD
影响因子：1.433
ISSN：1673-503X
年,卷(期)：2023.39(6)
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