Utilizing daily meteorological observation data from Central China from 1961-2014,along with down-scaled and bias-corrected data from 12 CMIP6 models from 1961-2100,this study assesses the spatial and temporal distributions of temperature and precipitation simulations of the CMIP6 models for the region,using the selected temperatures from six models and the precipitation data from four models.Based on the ensemble mean of the se-lected model results,the change trends in temperature and precipitation for Central China during different periods from 2021 to 2100 under three future scenarios i.e.SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,and SSP5-8.5 were analyzed.The results indicate that the ensemble mean provides better interannual variability in temperature simulations than those of pre-cipitation,while the spatial simulation of precipitation is better than that of temperature.Under all three scenarios,both regional temperature and precipitation show increasing trends,with temperature rise rates of 0.13 ℃/decade,0.30 ℃/decade,and 0.62 ℃/decade,and precipitation rise rates of 16.2 mm/decade,12.3 mm/decade,and 19.3 mm/decade,respectively.For the future period from 2021 to 2100 under the three scenarios,precipitation in Central China is projected to decrease in the south and to increase in the north.Near-term and mid-term tempera-tures are expected to decrease in the west and to increase in the central and eastern parts,while the long-term trend indicates that temperature increases across the region and only decreases in the western mountainous area of Hubei.
万方数据
维普
