Based on the estimated data of the Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6)conducted by the median resolution model BCC-CSM2-MR from the National Climate Center,methods including bilinear in-terpolation,trend analysis,anomaly analysis,etc.are used to analyze the changes of extreme precipitation over the Liaohe River Basin under the global warming of 1.5 ℃ and 2.0 ℃.The results show that the anomalous percent-age increase of the annual average precipitation over the Liaohe River Basin at the global warming of 1.5 ℃ rises with the increase of emission scenarios,reaching 5.82％under the SSP5-8.5 emission scenario.Under the global warming of 2.0 ℃,the annual and seasonal precipitations over the Liaohe River Basin all show increasing trends,especially for summer precipitation;under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios,the precipitation decreases from southwest to northeast,with a remarkable increase of over 15％in western Liaoning.Under different emission sce-narios,the extreme precipitation indices over the Liaohe River Basin all show increasing trends,with significant growths in daily precipitation intensity,the number of heavy precipitation days,and the proportion of heavy precip-itation.With the increase of emission scenarios,the growth rate of extreme precipitation indices rises and is two times more than under the SSP5-8.5 scenario compared to that under the SSP2-4.5 scenario.Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario,the precipitation intensity,the number of heavy precipitation days,the proportion of heavy precipitation,the threshold of heavy precipitation,the maximum number of consecutive wet days,and the maximum 10-day pre-cipitation amount will reach 11.66 mm/d,15.15 d,59.08％,32.94 mm,9.69 d,201.29 mm by the end of 21st century,increased by 5.58 mm/d,5.15 d,37.08％,10.15 mm,5.55 d,102.86 mm compared to those in the baseline period.Under the global warming of 2.0 ℃,the increases of six extreme precipitation indices are more significant than those under 1.5 ℃ warming,and the extreme precipitation over the Liaohe River Basin shows a consistent increasing trend under the SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios.
BCC-CSM-MRGlobal warmingExtreme precipitation index
万方数据
维普
