摘要
选用2008 年、2010-2014 年、2019 年河南省共630 份冬小麦样本及对应时段的气象资料,采用多重比较、Logistic多元回归等方法,构建河南省冬小麦籽粒质量达二等及以上的气象指标.结果表明:冬小麦籽粒容重与花粒期平均空气相对湿度呈显著负相关,与日照时数呈显著正相关;籽粒不完善粒与空气相对湿度、降水量和降水日数为显著正相关;冬小麦籽粒质量与各旬气象因子的相关性呈动态变化.不同地区影响冬小麦籽粒容重的关键气象因子不同,河南北部地区为光照和气温,河南东部主要为气温,河南南部为气温和降水量.冬小麦籽粒质量气象指标评价等级与实际籽粒质量等级指标的一致率为 84%,不完善粒评价一致率为100%.近30a河南省冬小麦质量气象等级达二等的平均频率为79.7%(除河南西部),气象条件整体上有利于河南省冬小麦籽粒质量的提高.
Abstract
Utilizing a dataset comprised of 630 winter wheat samples collected from He'nan province during the years 2008,2010 to 2014,and 2019,along with corresponding meteorological data,this study employs multiple comparison methods and logistic multivariate regression analysis to construct meteorological indicators predicting the attainment of grade two or higher grain quality in winter wheat.The results indicate a significant negative cor-relation between the thousand kernel weight(TKW)of winter wheat grains and average air relative humidity dur-ing the anthesis period,and a significant positive correlation with sunlight duration.The proportion of shriveled grains shows a significant positive correlation with air relative humidity,precipitation amount,and the number of precipitation days.The correlation between winter wheat grain quality and decadal meteorological factors displays dynamic variations.Key meteorological factors affecting the TKW of winter wheat grains differ by region within He'nan province,with sunlight and temperature being critical in the northern part,temperature in the eastern part,and temperature combined with precipitation in the southern part.The evaluation of meteorological indicators for winter wheat grain quality matched well with the actual grain quality grades,yielding a consistency rate of 84%,while the consistency rate for the evaluation of shriveled grains reached 100%.Over the past 30 years,the average frequency of attaining at least grade two in terms of meteorological conditions for winter wheat quality in He'nan province has been 79.7%(with the exception of western He'nan),suggesting that meteorological conditions are overall favorable for the improvement of grain quality of winter wheat in He'nan province.
基金项目
河南省农业气象保障与应用技术重点实验室开放基金(AMF202002)
河南省科技研发计划联合基金(222103810096)
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据