摘要
选用2017-2021 年西藏高原39 个观测站24h降水资料,对SWC-WARMS模式降水预报产品按照数值预报业务检验评估指标进行检验与评估.结果表明:西藏高原降水主要集中在暖季(降雨时段),以小雨为主.SWC-WARMS模式 24h累积降水预报年平均准确率、命中率和成功率分别为78%、83%和60%,预报效果较好,但整体的空报率和偏差均较大.西藏高原暖季的小雨及以上TS平均值为0.63,中雨及以上TS平均值较小,其空报率、漏报率随海拔高度落差增大而增大;冷季(降雪时段)降水日数较少,TS小于暖季、空报率高,但个别区域的SWC-WARMS模式大量级降雪预报TS超过0.30.
Abstract
Using 24-hour precipitation data from 39 observation stations on the Xizang Plateau from 2017 to 2021,the SWC-WARMS model products of precipitation forecasts were evaluated according to the operational numerical prediction evaluation metrics.The results showed that precipitation on the Xizang Plateau is mainly concentrated in the warm season(rainfall period),with light rain as the dominant form.The annual averaged accuracy rate,hit rate,and success rate of the 24-hour cumulative precipitation forecast from the SWC-WARMS model are 78%,83%,and 60%,respectively,indicating considerable prediction performance,which are however characterized by relatively high false alarm rate and bias.The averaged TS score for light rain and above during the warm season is up to 0.63,while the TS for moderate rain and above is relatively low.The false alarm rate and missing alarm rate increase with rising altitude differences.During the cold season(snowfall period),the number of precipitation days is fewer,with lower TS score and higher false alarm rate than those in the warm season.However,in certain re-gions,the TS for large-threshold snowfall forecasts reaches 0.30 in the SWC-WARMS model.
基金项目
青藏高原第二次科考项目(2019QZKK0105)
中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2021J031)
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据