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环境不确定情景下绿色技术创新动态扩散模型分析

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为探究不确定性因素对绿色技术创新动态扩散过程的影响,推动绿色技术创新以解决气候变化、资源稀缺和环境破坏等问题,通过构建以企业和消费者为主体的随机演化博弈模型,并对其进行了稳定性分析,得到3种扩散稳定情形,并完成了仿真测试.结果表明:在实施绿色技术创新策略的企业比重以及选择绿色消费的消费者比重均较小时,在不同的随机干扰下,最终都不能实现有效稳定;随着两者比例的增大,在经历混沌状态后,绿色技术创新策略和绿色消费能分别在企业和消费者中成功扩散,且在不同的干扰程度下实现有效稳定.
Analysis of Dynamic Diffusion Model of Green Technology Innovation Under Environmental Uncertainty Scenario
In today's global environment full of uncertainties,in order to explore the impact of uncertainty factors on the dynamic diffusion process of green technology innovation and promote green technology innovation to solve problems such as climate change,resource scarcity and environmental damage,this paper constructs a sto-chastic evolutionary game model with enterprises and consumers as the main body,and analyzes stability.Three kinds of diffusion stability cases are obtained,and simulation tests are completed.The results show that the pro-portion of enterprises implementing green technology innovation strategy and the proportion of consumers choo-sing green consumption are small,and under different random disturbances,they cannot achieve effective stability.With the increase of the proportion of the two,after experiencing the chaotic state,green technology innovation strategy and green consumption can successfully spread among enterprises and consumers respectively,and a-chieve effective stability under different interference degrees.

uncertaintystochastic evolutionary gameinnovation diffusionstabilitymodeling and simulation

于兆吉、耿雪园

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沈阳工业大学管理学院,大数据营销研究所,辽宁沈阳 110870

不确定 随机演化博弈 创新扩散 稳定性 建模与仿真

国家自然科学基金项目

72263006

2024

绿色科技
花木盆景杂志社

绿色科技

影响因子:0.365
ISSN:1674-9944
年,卷(期):2024.26(5)
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