Carbon Peak Prediction in the Yellow River Delta Based on LMDI-STIRPAT Models
With the increasingly severe form of global warming,climate change has become a long-term challenge for the sustainable development of mankind.Achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality as soon as possible is of great significance to coping with global environmental changes and promoting the sustainable development of na-tional economies.Under this pressure,the Chinese government has formulated corresponding policies at the pro-vincial level in an effort to achieve the goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality.This paper takes Dongying City,the central city of the Yellow River Delta,as the research area.The influencing factors of carbon emissions in Dongying City were decomposed by the LMDI model,and the carbon emissions of Dongying City were pre-dicted by the STIRPAT model.The results show that the carbon emission intensity effect is the main inhibitory factor among the characteristic factors affecting carbon emissions in Dongying City.The economic development effect and energy intensity effect have a promoting effect on the carbon emissions of Dongying City,which are the main promoting factors.The scenario prediction results show that under optimized and low-carbon scenarios,Dongying City can achieve the goal of peaking carbon emissions before 2030,with carbon emissions reaching 106.3863 million tons and 107.9935 million tons respectively in 2027 and 2029.Optimizing the energy structure,improving energy utilization efficiency,and implementing a high-quality development strategy for green and low-carbon transformation are important guarantees for the Yellow River Delta to reach its peak carbon emissions by 2030.
carbon emissionLMDI modelSTIRPAT modelYellow River Delta
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
