Land Use Change and Prediction of Park Green Space Based on CA-Markov Model——Taking Jiang'an District of Wuhan City as an Example
This paper focuses on the land use change of parks and green spaces in the city,which has certain refer-ence for the development and transformation of urban parks,urban economic development and spatial arrangement in the future.Taking Jiang'an District of Wuhan City as the research object,ArcGIS was used to visually interpret the land remote sensing data of Landsat in 2005,2010,2015 and 2020.The land use and urban park green space changes in 2030 were predicted through the CA-Markov model,and the changes of urban park green space from 2005 to 2030 were analyzed.The results showed that:① The main land use type in Jiang'an District of Wuhan Cit-y was construction land,accounting for more than 60％of the total land area.② The decrease of cultivated land and forest land and the continuous increase of construction land were the main reasons for the decrease of culti-vated land and forest land in Jiang'an District of Wuhan City in 2005.③ The Kappa coefficients of land use simu-lated by CA-Markov model in 2015 and 2020 were 0.772 and 0.809,respectively,both of which were greater than 0.75,and the simulation accuracy was acceptable;④ The predicted land use change in Jiang'an District of Wuhan City in 2030 showed that the decrease of cultivated land and forest land and the increase of construction land were still the main trends,but the change range of the two was slowed down,and the green space of urban parks has been increasing;Attention needs to be paid to the continuous increase of construction land and the continuous de-crease of cultivated land and forest land in Jiang'an District of Wuhan City.The land use change in 2030 simulated by the CA-Markov model can also provide a reference for the future land use development of Jiang'an District of Wuhan City,and the construction of urban park green space can be used as a reference for the development of ex-isting urban park green space or the development of new urban park green space.
urban park green spaceland useCA-Markov modeltransfer matrixKappa coefficient
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
